# PyroAdapt: Adapting Wildfire Prediction under Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Shift

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12435 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12435/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Domain-Adversarial Training of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.07818/) (2015)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08731/) (2019)
- [Class-Balanced Loss Based on Effective Number of Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05555/) (2019)
- [Learning Imbalanced Datasets with Label-Distribution-Aware Margin Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.07413/) (2019)
- [Decoupling Representation and Classifier for Long-Tailed Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09217/) (2019)
- [Generalization through Memorization: Nearest Neighbor Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.00172/) (2019)
- [TabNet: Attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07442/) (2019)
- [Long-tail learning via logit adjustment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.07314/) (2020)
- [A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00646/) (2020)
- [Next Day Wildfire Spread: A Machine Learning Data Set to Predict Wildfire Spreading from Remote-Sensing Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02447/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning Methods for Daily Wildfire Danger Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02736/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Prediction of wildfire occurrence is a rare-event problem compounded by spatial heterogeneity and temporal distribution shift, as fire occurrences are vastly outnumbered by non-occurrences, and predictor--fire relationship varies across space and time. Models trained on historical fire data may perform poorly under new conditions and require adaptation to the target distribution before operational use. We propose PyroAdapt, a pretrain--retrieve--rank framework that adapts a pretrained model to target conditions by retrieving historical locations with similar conditions and fine-tuning on the retrievals through risk ranking. For spatial adaptation, we condition risk on terrain, ecoregion embeddings, and fire rates, accounting for spatial context in the retrieval, and learn risk ordering from same-day fire--nonfire cell pairs. We compare direct ranking, residual pairwise DPO (RDPO), and selective ranking through a unified score-gap formulation that characterizes their gradient allocation. Over California (discretized into 666 0.25x0.25 grid cells), these objectives raise daily average precision from 21.62% for continued focal fine-tuning to 24.35--24.57%, and Top5% recall from 18.70% to 22.11--22.79%. Under a fixed daily detection budget of 34 cells (5% area), selective ranking captures 344 additional positive cell--days. For fires in the top 5%/10%/20% of dry matter consumption, selective ranking raises recall by 39.70/28.18/20.50 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, rolling evaluations over Yosemite show that the gains from ranking persist under temporal distribution shift. Together, these results show that PyroAdapt prioritizes the most fire-prone locations under a daily budget constraint and detects more extreme fire events.