# Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds for Sequential Decision Making

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12190 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.12190/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Information-theoretic analysis of generalization capability of learning algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07809/) (2017)
- [Reasoning About Generalization via Conditional Mutual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.09122/) (2020)
- [Sharpened Generalization Bounds based on Conditional Mutual Information and an Application to Noisy, Iterative Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.12983/) (2020)
- [Information-theoretic generalization bounds for black-box learning algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01584/) (2021)
- [PAC-Bayes, MAC-Bayes and Conditional Mutual Information: Fast rate bounds that handle general VC classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09683/) (2021)
- [On the Generalization of Models Trained with SGD: Information-Theoretic Bounds and Implications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.03128/) (2021)
- [A New Family of Generalization Bounds Using Samplewise Evaluated CMI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06422/) (2022)
- [PAC-Bayes Generalisation Bounds for Heavy-Tailed Losses through Supermartingales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.00928/) (2022)
- [Online PAC-Bayes Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00024/) (2022)
- [Tighter Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds from Supersamples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02432/) (2023)
- [Generalization Bounds for Noisy Iterative Algorithms Using Properties of Additive Noise Channels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02976/) (2021)
- [Time-Independent Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds for SGLD](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01046/) (2023)
- [Minimum Description Length and Generalization Guarantees for Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03254/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Information-theoretic generalization bounds based on the supersample construction are a central tool for algorithm-dependent generalization analysis in the batch i.i.d.~setting. However, existing supersample conditional mutual information (CMI) bounds do not directly apply to sequential decision-making problems such as online learning, streaming active learning, and bandits, where data are revealed adaptively and the learner evolves along a causal trajectory. To address this limitation, we develop a sequential supersample framework that separates the learner filtration from a proof-side enlargement used for ghost-coordinate comparisons. Under a row-wise exchangeability assumption, the sequential generalization gap is controlled by sequential CMI, a sum of roundwise selector--loss information terms. We also establish a Bernstein-type refinement that yields faster rates under suitable variance conditions. The selector-SCMI proof strategy applies to online learning, streaming active learning with importance weighting, and stochastic multi-armed bandits.