# Do Foundation Model Embeddings Improve Cross-Country Crop Yield Generalisation? A Leave-One-Country-Out Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.08113 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08113/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Seasonal Contrast: Unsupervised Pre-Training from Uncurated Remote Sensing Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.16607/) (2021)
- [Foundation Models for Generalist Geospatial Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.18660/) (2023)
- [On the Opportunities and Challenges of Foundation Models for Geospatial Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06798/) (2023)
- [SSL4EO-S12: A Large-Scale Multi-Modal, Multi-Temporal Dataset for Self-Supervised Learning in Earth Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.07044/) (2022)
- [Recent Advances in Domain Adaptation for the Classification of Remote Sensing Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07778/) (2021)
- [Rapid Response Crop Maps in Data Sparse Regions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16866/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Transferability and operational reliability of a Prithvi crop classification foundation model under phenological and geographic shift across three continents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.08810/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate predictions of smallholder maize yields across national boundaries are critical for food security planning in sub-Saharan Africa, yet most published benchmarks report within-country performance that overstates true generalisability. This paper evaluates whether geospatial foundation model embeddings, specifically Prithvi-EO-1.0-100M and ViT-Base, outperform traditional Sentinel-2 spectral features under a Leave-One-Country-Out cross-validation scheme on 6,404 maize field observations from five African countries. The results show a clear generalisability gap: within-country random cross-validation yields moderate R^2 values, but all feature sets perform poorly under cross-country testing, with universally negative R^2. Frozen Prithvi-EO embeddings provide no meaningful advantage over engineered spectral features for cross-country prediction in this setting. The paper argues that the main limitation is a shift in yield distribution between countries rather than representation quality and releases a reproducible negative benchmark for future work.