# The Coupling Tax: How Shared Token Budgets Undermine Visible Chain-of-Thought Under Fixed Output Limits

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.07686 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07686/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 23 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/prompting-and-chain-of-thought-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Challenging BIG-Bench Tasks and Whether Chain-of-Thought Can Solve Them](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09261/) (2022)
- [Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.17192/) (2022)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [Universal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03819/) (2018)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Computation Time for Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.08983/) (2016)
- [Confident Adaptive Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07061/) (2022)
- [Reasoning Models Can Be Effective Without Thinking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09858/) (2025)
- [Fast and Robust Early-Exiting Framework for Autoregressive Language Models with Synchronized Parallel Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05424/) (2023)
- [SelfBudgeter: Adaptive Token Allocation for Efficient LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11274/) (2025)
- [Scalable Chain of Thoughts via Elastic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.05315/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [What Does a Harness Repair? A Preregistered Study of Visibility, Baseline Adequacy and Evaluation Defects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05533/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Chain-of-thought reasoning is often treated as a monotone way to improve language-model accuracy by letting a model think longer. We identify a countervailing effect, the coupling tax: when reasoning traces and final answers share one output-token budget, long traces can crowd out the answer they are meant to support. Across GSM8K, MATH-500, and five BIG-Bench Hard tasks with Qwen3 models at three scales, non-thinking mode matches or outperforms thinking mode on GSM8K and MATH-500 at every budget up to 2048 tokens, while harder tasks shift the crossover to larger budgets. We derive a truncation-waste decomposition, Accthink(b)=αc FL(b)+αt(1-FL(b)), that predicts this crossover from chain-length and accuracy statistics and explains inverse scaling within the Qwen family. A DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B replication shows the same pattern under a different thinking interface. As a mitigation, split-budget generation decouples reasoning and answer budgets; on full MATH-500, IRIS reaches 74.0% accuracy, a strengthened extraction variant reaches 78.8%, and a fixed non-oracle SC+IRIS gate reaches 83.6%. The results show that test-time reasoning should be evaluated as a budget-allocation problem, not only as a question of whether longer traces are available.