# Data-Driven Covariate Selection for Nonparametric and Cycle-Agnostic Causal Effect Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06385 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06385/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04342/) (2015)
- [Foundations of Structural Causal Models with Cycles and Latent Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.06221/) (2016)
- [Markov Properties for Graphical Models with Cycles and Latent Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.08775/) (2017)
- [Constraint-Based Causal Discovery using Partial Ancestral Graphs in the presence of Cycles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00610/) (2020)
- [Causal Calculus in the Presence of Cycles, Latent Confounders and Selection Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.00433/) (2019)
- [Local search for efficient causal effect estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.10014/) (2020)
- [Local Causal Discovery for Structural Evidence of Direct Discrimination](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14848/) (2024)
- [Local Learning for Covariate Selection in Nonparametric Causal Effect Estimation with Latent Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16315/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Estimating causal effects from observational data requires identifying valid adjustment sets. This task is especially challenging in realistic settings where latent confounding and feedback loops are present. Existing approaches typically assume acyclicity or rely on global causal structure learning, limiting applicability and computational efficiency. In this work, we study a local, data-driven method for covariate selection based on conditional independence information. While this method is known to be sound and complete in acyclic causal models, its validity in the presence of cycles has remained unclear. Our main contribution is to show that these guarantees extend to cyclic causal models. In particular, our result relies on the invariance of conditional independence assertions under σ-acyclification. These findings establish a unified, cycle-agnostic perspective on covariate selection and causal effect estimation, showing that the method applies across cyclic and acyclic settings without modification. Empirically, we validate this on extensive synthetic data, showing reliable performance in cyclic causal models.