# Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06337 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06337/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Latent predictive world models, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 22 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.

## Placed in

- World models / [Latent predictive world models](https://mlsanity.com/wm/latent-predictive-world-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
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- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [Point Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.00931/) (2020)
- [Cosmos World Foundation Model Platform for Physical AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03575/) (2025)
- [Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01622/) (2018)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [4M: Massively Multimodal Masked Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06647/) (2023)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [GraphDOP: Towards skilful data-driven medium-range weather forecasts learnt and initialised directly from observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15687/) (2024)
- [FengWu-4DVar: Coupling the Data-driven Weather Forecasting Model with 4D Variational Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12455/) (2023)
- [Towards an end-to-end artificial intelligence driven global weather forecasting system](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12462/) (2023)
- [Data driven weather forecasts trained and initialised directly from observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15586/) (2024)
- [Data-driven Global Ocean Modeling for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15412/) (2024)
- [Global atmospheric data assimilation with multi-modal masked autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11696/) (2024)
- [FNP: Fourier Neural Processes for Arbitrary-Resolution Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01645/) (2024)
- [FengWu-W2S: A deep learning model for seamless weather-to-subseasonal forecast of global atmosphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.10191/) (2024)
- [DAWP: A framework for global observation forecasting via Data Assimilation and Weather Prediction in satellite observation space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15978/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [UniGIO: Unified Generative Global In-situ Weather Modeling from Spatiotemporal Incomplete Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22217/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.