# Measuring Black-Box Confidence via Reasoning Trajectories: Geometry, Coverage, and Verbalization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06308 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06308/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 25 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [What Disease does this Patient Have? A Large-scale Open Domain Question Answering Dataset from Medical Exams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13081/) (2020)
- [Text Embeddings by Weakly-Supervised Contrastive Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03533/) (2022)
- [Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04388/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [How Can We Know What Language Models Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12543/) (2019)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13702/) (2023)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Eliciting Latent Predictions from Transformers with the Tuned Lens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08112/) (2023)
- [Contrastive Decoding: Open-ended Text Generation as Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.15097/) (2022)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18418/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [Selectively Answering Ambiguous Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14613/) (2023)
- [Large Language Model Confidence Estimation via Black-Box Access](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04370/) (2024)
- [Towards Agents That Know When They Don't Know: Uncertainty as a Control Signal for Structured Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02401/) (2025)
- [Query, Don't Train: Privacy-Preserving Tabular Prediction from EHR Data via SQL Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.21801/) (2025)
- [Towards Label-Free Biological Reasoning Synthetic Dataset Creation via Uncertainty Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.05871/) (2025)
- [MechPert: Mechanistic Consensus as an Inductive Bias for Unseen Perturbation Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13791/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable confidence estimation enables safe deployment of chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning through text-only APIs. Yet the dominant black-box baseline, self-consistency over K samples, is linearly expensive and ignores the geometry of the trace. We propose a black-box trajectory-confidence score: we embed a CoT as a sliding-window trajectory and measure its convergence to external answer anchors with a one-parameter softmax. The method needs no logits, hidden states, or supervised calibrators. Across six (benchmark, reasoner) settings on MedQA-USMLE, GPQA Diamond, and MMLU-Pro with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Sonnet 4.6, fusing this score with coverage and verbalized-confidence channels at K=4 yields Pareto improvements over self-consistency at K=8 in 6/6 settings (median AUC 0.78 vs 0.71, deltaAUC=+0.075). A fixed-pick control (+0.060) and E5 cross-embedder replication rule out answer switching and single-vendor artifacts. Geometry peaks in the penultimate window across benchmarks and reasoners, and inverts at the terminal window on GPQA Diamond. Three unscaffolded regimes separate black-box confidence into a judge-mediated Coverage prior (C), within-trace Geometry (G), and a conditional Verbalization channel (V). Across 18 benchmark x reasoner x proposer settings, C and G provide independent signal in 18/18 and 16/18, while V contributes residual signal in 6/18. Swapping the judge from GPT-5-mini to Claude Sonnet 4.6 leaves G-only AUC unchanged (|delta|<=0.013) and shifts C-only AUC by at most +/-0.02 (kappa=0.82). Fusion beats the best single channel in 17/18 settings (median AUC 0.78, max 0.92).