# Multi-Dimensional Behavioral Evaluation of Agentic Stock Prediction Systems Using Large Language Model Judges with Closed-Loop Reinforcement Learning Feedback

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05739 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05739/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 11 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [General LLM agent frameworks and benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/agents/general-llm-agent-frameworks-and-benchmarks/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [AlpacaFarm: A Simulation Framework for Methods that Learn from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14387/) (2023)
- [Stock Market Prediction Using Node Transformer Architecture Integrated with BERT Sentiment Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.05917/) (2026)
- [Adaptive Regime-Aware Stock Price Prediction Using Autoencoder-Gated Dual Node Transformers with Reinforcement Learning Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19136/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [ATLAS: Dual-Horizon Diagnostic Evaluation for Industrial Tool-Use Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.30685/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Agentic artificial intelligence systems produce outputs through sequences of interdependent autonomous decisions, yet standard evaluation assesses outputs alone and cannot diagnose the underlying process. We develop a behavioral evaluation methodology that complements output-level testing by scoring the intermediate decision process itself. Behavioral traces logged at each autonomous decision point are grouped into five-day episodes and scored along six domain-specific dimensions (regime detection, routing, adaptation, risk calibration, strategy coherence, error recovery) by an ensemble of three large language model (LLM) judges. A perturbation procedure that corrupts one dimension while leaving the other five intact confirms dimension specificity; cross-model agreement reaches Krippendorff's alpha = 0.85. The composite behavioral score correlates at Spearman rho = 0.72 with realized 20-day Sharpe ratio. Closing the loop, the framework converts deficient per-dimension scores into a credit-assigned penalty added to the Soft Actor-Critic reward. Three fine-tuning cycles, confined to validation data, reduce one-day MAPE from 0.61% to 0.54% (11.5% relative; p<0.001, d=0.31) on the held-out 2017 to 2025 test period, significant under Diebold-Mariano and localized by Giacomini-White to the high-volatility regime. The methodology is application-agnostic and applies to any agentic system whose intermediate decisions can be logged.