# Belief Memory: Agent Memory Under Partial Observability

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05583 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05583/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Agent memory systems, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 29 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Agent memory systems](https://mlsanity.com/agents/agent-memory-systems/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Voyager: An Open-Ended Embodied Agent with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16291/) (2023)
- [MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08560/) (2023)
- [ALFWorld: Aligning Text and Embodied Environments for Interactive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03768/) (2020)
- [A-MEM: Agentic Memory for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12110/) (2025)
- [ExpeL: LLM Agents Are Experiential Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10144/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Very Long-Term Conversational Memory of LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17753/) (2024)
- [Mem0: Building Production-Ready AI Agents with Scalable Long-Term Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.19413/) (2025)
- [MemoryBank: Enhancing Large Language Models with Long-Term Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10250/) (2023)
- [Zep: A Temporal Knowledge Graph Architecture for Agent Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13956/) (2025)
- [Memory in the Age of AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.13564/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Memory in LLM Agents via Incremental Multi-Turn Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05257/) (2025)
- [MEM1: Learning to Synergize Memory and Reasoning for Efficient Long-Horizon Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.15841/) (2025)
- [Memory-R1: Enhancing Large Language Model Agents to Manage and Utilize Memories via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.19828/) (2025)
- [Memory OS of AI Agent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06326/) (2025)
- [A Human-Inspired Reading Agent with Gist Memory of Very Long Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09727/) (2024)
- [MemSkill: Learning and Evolving Memory Skills for Self-Evolving Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02474/) (2026)
- [MemOS: A Memory OS for AI System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.03724/) (2025)
- [MemRL: Self-Evolving Agents via Runtime Reinforcement Learning on Episodic Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.03192/) (2026)
- [Agentic Memory: Learning Unified Long-Term and Short-Term Memory Management for Large Language Model Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01885/) (2026)
- [Memory for Autonomous LLM Agents:Mechanisms, Evaluation, and Emerging Frontiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.07670/) (2026)
- [Your Agent May Misevolve: Emergent Risks in Self-evolving LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26354/) (2025)
- [Accumulating Context Changes the Beliefs of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.01805/) (2025)
- [Governing Evolving Memory in LLM Agents: Risks, Mechanisms, and the Stability and Safety Governed Memory (SSGM) Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.11768/) (2026)
- [ABBEL: Learning Natural-Language Belief States for Memory-Efficient Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.20111/) (2025)
- [PABU: Progress-Aware Belief Update for Efficient LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09138/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [When Does Belief-Based Agent Memory Help? Reliability-Conditional Updating and Provenance-Capped Poisoning Defense](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22030/) (2026)
- [StatefulDiscovery: Evidence-Calibrated Claim Formation in Open-Ended Scientific Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.11851/) (2026)
- [Towards a Belief-Based World Model for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00455/) (2026)
- [A Benchmark and Diagnostic Study of Epistemic Admission in Shared Agent Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.30813/) (2026)
- [Decision-Sufficient State Representations: Measuring and Reducing Write-Time Regret](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32805/) (2026)
- [Respecting Modality Gap in Post-hoc Out-of-distribution Detection with Pre-trained Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.26661/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.07395/) (2026)
- [Self-Cleaning and Captured Anyway: One Measured Primitive for Error in a Store an Agent Writes to Itself, and What a Falling Score Actually Measures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.25052/) (2026)
- [Truth for Believable AI: Expressed Doubt, Provenance, and Belief Revision as an Engineerable Stance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.26035/) (2026)
- [Beyond the Shadows of Plato's Cave: Evaluating False Memory in Autonomous Agents via Counterfactual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.39473/) (2026)
- [EvoBelief: Falsifiable World Models for Self-Improving LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.12789/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

LLM agents that operate over long context depend on external memory to accumulate knowledge over time. However, existing methods typically store each observation as a single deterministic conclusion (e.g., inferring "API~X failed" from temporary errors), even though such observations are inherently partial and potentially ambiguous. By committing to one conclusion and discarding uncertainty, these methods introduce self-reinforcing error: the agent acts on the stored conclusion, never revisits alternatives, and reinforces the conclusion over time. To address this issue, we propose BeliefMem, which shifts the memory paradigm from committing to a single conclusion per observation to retaining multiple candidate conclusions with their probabilities. Concretely, BeliefMem stores the candidate conclusions as separate memory entries, each carrying a probability that is updated via Noisy-OR rules as new observations arrive. At retrieval, all candidates surface together with their probabilities, keeping alternatives visible to the agent. Since each conclusion in memory retains its probability, BeliefMem preserves the uncertainty that the deterministic paradigm discards, enabling the agent to act with high confidence on well-evidenced knowledge while retaining the capacity to update its confidence when new evidence arrives. Empirical evaluations on LoCoMo and ALFWorld benchmarks show that, even with limited data, BeliefMem achieves the best average performance, remarkably outperforming well-known baselines. More broadly, such probabilistic memory produces substantial gains and explores a new direction for agent memory in partially observable environments.