# Forecasting Green Skill Demand in the Automotive Industry: Evidence from Online Job Postings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.05280 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.05280/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Rethinking Skill Extraction in the Job Market Domain using Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03832/) (2024)
- [A Cross-View Hierarchical Graph Learning Hypernetwork for Skill Demand-Supply Joint Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.17838/) (2024)
- [Learning Occupational Task-Shares Dynamics for the Future of Work](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05655/) (2020)
- [Practical Skills Demand Forecasting via Representation Learning of Temporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09508/) (2022)
- [Job-SDF: A Multi-Granularity Dataset for Job Skill Demand Forecasting and Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11920/) (2024)
- [Patterns of co-occurrent skills in UK job adverts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03139/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The global transition toward sustainable economies is reshaping labor markets, yet systematic methods for identifying and forecasting green skills remain limited. This study presents a computational framework to measure and predict green skill demand using online job postings from Mexico's automotive industry, which contributes about 4% of national GDP. We compile a dataset of job advertisements from Indeed Mexico, OCC Mundial, and LinkedIn (July 2024 to July 2025), yielding 204,373 skill records. A two-stage pipeline combining multilingual embeddings and ESCO validation identifies 274 unique green skills across 8,576 occurrences (4.22% of all skills). We benchmark 15 time series forecasting models using a rolling origin evaluation. Transformer-based models, especially FEDformer, Reformer, and Informer, achieve the best performance, with MAE around 2.5e-5 and relative RMSE below 15. We further propose a framework to classify skills by absolute and relative growth, identifying stable, emerging, and high-impact competencies. Results show current demand is concentrated in operational sustainability practices, while the fastest-growing skills relate to renewable energy, recycling, and hydrogen technologies. This pipeline supports data-driven workforce planning in the green transition.