# NoisyCausal: A Benchmark for Evaluating Causal Reasoning Under Structured Noise

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04313 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.04313/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Causal reasoning in LLMs, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 10 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Causal reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/lr/causal-reasoning-in-llms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Logic-LM: Empowering Large Language Models with Symbolic Solvers for Faithful Logical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12295/) (2023)
- [Solving Challenging Math Word Problems Using GPT-4 Code Interpreter with Code-based Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07921/) (2023)
- [EASYTOOL: Enhancing LLM-based Agents with Concise Tool Instruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06201/) (2024)
- [Event2Mind: Commonsense Inference on Events, Intents, and Reactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06939/) (2018)
- [Causal Reasoning from Meta-reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.08162/) (2019)
- [Causal Graphs Meet Thoughts: Enhancing Complex Reasoning in Graph-Augmented LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14892/) (2025)
- [LLM4Causal: Democratized Causal Tools for Everyone via Large Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17122/) (2023)
- [Understanding Large Language Model Behaviors through Interactive Counterfactual Generation and Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00708/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [CausalDS: Benchmarking Causal Reasoning in Data-Science Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08093/) (2026)
- [Reasoning Models Are Accurate but Unsound on Identification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03519/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Causal reasoning in natural language requires identifying relevant variables, understanding their interactions, and reasoning about effects and interventions, often under noisy or ambiguous conditions. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general reasoning abilities, they struggle to disentangle correlation from causation, particularly when observations are partially incorrect or irrelevant information is present. In this work, we introduce NoisyCausal, a new benchmark designed to evaluate causal reasoning under structured noise. Each instance is generated from a ground-truth causal graph and contextualized with a natural language scenario by injecting controllable forms of noise, such as irrelevant distractors, value perturbations, confounding, and partial observability. Moreover, we propose a modular reasoning framework that combines LLMs with explicit causal structure to address these challenges. Our method prompts the LLM to extract variables, construct a causal graph from context, and then reformulates the reasoning task as a structured prompt grounded in this graph. Rather than relying on statistical patterns alone, the LLM is guided by symbolic structure, enabling more interpretable and robust inference. Experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms standard prompting and reasoning baselines on NoisyCausal. Furthermore, it generalizes well to external benchmarks such as Cladder without task-specific tuning. Our findings highlight the importance of combining causal abstractions with language-driven reasoning to achieve faithful and robust causal understanding in LLMs.