# Adaptive Consensus in LLM Ensembles via Sequential Evidence Accumulation: Automatic Budget Identification and Calibrated Commit Signals

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.04236 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.04236/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 8 of its 15 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 May 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [Encouraging Divergent Thinking in Large Language Models through Multi-Agent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19118/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Model ensembles improve reasoning accuracy, but only up to a performance boundary beyond which additional deliberation degrades accuracy. We introduce DASE (Deliberative Adaptive Stopping Ensemble), a stopping heuristic for iterative ensemble deliberation that commits early on genuine consensus and applies a global-frequency fallback on fragmented evidence. We make three contributions. (1) DASE produces a commit-type routing partition that generalises across benchmarks and is complementary to verbalized single-call confidence. On GPQA-Extended (N=546, 70B ensemble), the partition yields a 39.5 pp routing gap (right-wall 81.1% vs. left-wall 41.5%). On AIME 2010-2023 (N=261, 120B ensemble, 3 seeds), right-wall commits reach 98.3% accuracy vs. left-wall 72.8% (25.5 pp gap), statistically equivalent to Opus 4.6 Standard verbalized confidence at matched coverage (25.7 pp gap; bootstrap p=0.873); the two mechanisms disagree on 37% of routing assignments. (2) Adaptive stopping, not injection bandwidth, drives accuracy. On AIME-300, bandwidth accounts for only 0.3 pp (ns). On GPQA-Extended at the 120B tier, sparse injection (≈15 tokens/worker/round) achieves 70.9% with a 30.7 pp routing gap; dense injection (≈600 chars/worker/round) achieves 72.2% but with halved right-wall coverage and a narrower 18.9 pp gap. (3) Injection-based methods exhibit an inverted-U accuracy-vs-inference trajectory; this pattern is hypothesis-generating.