# Toward a foundational thermal model for residential buildings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.01364 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01364/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Probabilistic Forecasting for Building Energy Systems using Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00630/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Very Exciting: Zero-Shot Model Predictive Control of Buildings via Excitation-Based Generalized Transfer Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.12853/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The building energy community lacks a foundational thermal model, i.e., a single pretrained model capable of generalizing across diverse buildings, climates, and control strategies without building-specific calibration. Achieving this vision requires architectural principles that capture universal thermal dynamics rather than memorizing building-specific patterns. We take a step toward this goal by presenting a physics-informed transformer architecture that embeds domain knowledge, e.g., derivative enrichment and Euler-based numerical integration, into a decoder-only framework. We incorporate static building features extracted from simulation models and employ Rotary Position Embedding attention to capture temporal dependencies. Evaluated on the CityLearn dataset spanning 247 residential buildings across three climate zones, our model achieves one-step prediction accuracy (RMSE of 0.30degC in Texas, 0.29degC in Vermont) while outperforming both traditional baselines and fine-tuned Time-Series Foundation Models. We also demonstrate zero-shot transferability: models trained on as few as two buildings generalize to unseen buildings and climate zones without fine-tuning. Despite the limitation of simulated residential buildings, our results establish physics-informed architectural principles as a promising foundation for universal building thermal models.