# Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.01297 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01297/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02843/) (2024)
- [A Taxonomy of Systemic Risks from General-Purpose AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07780/) (2024)
- [Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.11681/) (2025)
- [The Manhattan Trap: Why a Race to Artificial Superintelligence is Self-Defeating](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14749/) (2024)
- [Against racing to AGI: Cooperation, deterrence, and catastrophic risks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21839/) (2025)
- [Bridging the Artificial Intelligence Governance Gap: The United States' and China's Divergent Approaches to Governing General-Purpose Artificial Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.03497/) (2025)
- [What are the odds? Risk and uncertainty about AI existential risk](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23453/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A three-dimensional typology of agency for advanced AI systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20041/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper uses game theory to argue that, contrary to the prevailing view, a moratorium on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) can be in a state's self-interest. By formalizing trategic interactions between geopolitical superpowers, we model the trade-off between the benefits of technological supremacy and the catastrophic risks of uncontrolled ASI. The analysis reveals that as the perceived cost of loss of control increases sufficiently relative to other parameters, it becomes in each state's self-interest to impose a moratorium. We further provide empirical evidence suggesting that the global perception of ASI risk is rising, making a stable, rational moratorium increasingly plausible in the current geopolitical landscape.