# Deep Kernel Learning for Stratifying Glaucoma Trajectories

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.00708 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00708/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.3781/) (2013)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Publicly Available Clinical BERT Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.03323/) (2019)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [ClinicalBERT: Modeling Clinical Notes and Predicting Hospital Readmission](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.05342/) (2019)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Deep Kernel Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.02222/) (2015)
- [Gaussian Processes for Big Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1309.6835/) (2013)
- [Med-BERT: pre-trained contextualized embeddings on large-scale structured electronic health records for disease prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.12833/) (2020)
- [Scalable and accurate deep learning for electronic health records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07860/) (2018)
- [GatorTron: A Large Clinical Language Model to Unlock Patient Information from Unstructured Electronic Health Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03540/) (2022)
- [Transformer Hawkes Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09291/) (2020)
- [GRU-ODE-Bayes: Continuous modeling of sporadically-observed time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.12374/) (2019)
- [Deep EHR: A Survey of Recent Advances in Deep Learning Techniques for Electronic Health Record (EHR) Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03446/) (2017)
- [Transformer Embeddings of Irregularly Spaced Events and Their Participants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.00044/) (2021)
- [Interpolation-Prediction Networks for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.07782/) (2019)
- [The Promises and Pitfalls of Deep Kernel Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12108/) (2021)
- [Time Series as Images: Vision Transformer for Irregularly Sampled Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12799/) (2023)
- [Deep Representation Learning of Patient Data from Electronic Health Records (EHR): A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02809/) (2020)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Architectural Diversity and Open Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.05793/) (2024)
- [Improving Medical Predictions by Irregular Multimodal Electronic Health Records Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.12156/) (2022)
- [Learning Scalable Deep Kernels with Recurrent Structure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.08936/) (2016)
- [Modeling Irregularly Sampled Clinical Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.00531/) (2018)
- [Disease Trajectory Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09184/) (2016)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Effectively stratifying patient risk in chronic diseases like glaucoma is a major clinical challenge. Clinicians need tools to identify patients at high risk of progression from sparse and irregularly-sampled electronic health records (EHRs). We propose a novel deep kernel learning (DKL) architecture that leverages a Gaussian Process (GP) backend. The GP's kernel is defined by a transformer-based feature extractor applied to clinical-BERT embeddings to model glaucoma patient trajectories from multimodal EHR data. Our method successfully identifies three clinically distinct patient subgroups. Crucially, the model learns to decouple disease progression from current severity, identifying a high-risk group with a worsening trajectory despite having better average visual acuity than a second, stably poor group. This reveals that the model learns to identify progression risk rather than just the current disease state. This ability to stratify patients based on their risk trajectory progression offers a powerful tool for clinical decision support, enabling targeted interventions for high-risk individuals and improving the management of glaucoma care.