# Predicting Upcoming Stuttering Events from Three-Second Audio: Stratified Evaluation Reveals Severity-Selective Precursors, and the Model Deploys Fully On-Device

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27279 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.27279/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 9 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Robust Speech Recognition via Large-Scale Weak Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04356/) (2022)
- [wav2vec 2.0: A Framework for Self-Supervised Learning of Speech Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11477/) (2020)
- [SEP-28k: A Dataset for Stuttering Event Detection From Podcasts With People Who Stutter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12394/) (2021)
- [A Stutter Seldom Comes Alone -- Cross-Corpus Stuttering Detection as a Multi-label Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19255/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Detection To Anticipation: Continuous Onset Forecasting For Stuttered Speech](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.19235/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Audio-based stuttering systems to date have been trained for detection -- what disfluency is present now -- leaving prediction, the capability needed for closed-loop intervention, unstudied at deployable scale. We train a 616K-parameter CNN on SEP-28k (Apple, 20,131 three-second clips) to predict whether the next contiguous clip contains any disfluency. (1) Severity-selective precursor signal: on the episode-grouped test set, aggregate preblock AUC is modest (0.581 [0.542, 0.619]), but stratifying by upcoming event type reveals concentration on clinically severe events -- blocks 0.601 [0.554, 0.651] and sound repetitions 0.617 [0.567, 0.667] both exclude chance, while fillers (0.45) and word repetitions (0.49) are at chance. The aggregate objective converges to a severity-selective predictor because severe events carry prosodic precursors; fillers do not. (2) Cross-population transfer: without fine-tuning, the same checkpoint applied to 1,024 pediatric Children-Who-Stutter utterances (FluencyBank Teaching) attains AUC 0.674 detection and 0.655 prediction; DisfluencySpeech and LibriStutter reach 0.58-0.60 AUC. (3) Deployable on-device: lossless export to CoreML (1.19 MB), ONNX (40 KB), TFLite. Neural-Engine latency per 3 s window: 0.25 ms (iPhone 17 Pro Max, A19 Pro) to 0.55 ms (iPhone SE 3rd-gen and M1 Max). A 4 Hz streaming simulation uses 0.54% of the real-time budget. Platt-calibrated outputs (test ECE 0.010, from 0.177 raw). Five negative ablations -- output-level Future-Guided Learning, multi-clip GRU, time-axis concatenation, asymmetric focal loss, direct block-targeted training -- none improved over the vanilla baseline.