# Predictive Multi-Tier Memory Management for KV Cache in Large-Scale GPU Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.26968 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.26968/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in KV cache optimization, one of 12 directions in Efficient LLM inference and serving.
- Builds on 24 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [KV cache optimization](https://mlsanity.com/inference/kv-cache-optimization/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [Efficient Streaming Language Models with Attention Sinks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17453/) (2023)
- [SGLang: Efficient Execution of Structured Language Model Programs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07104/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
- [SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14469/) (2024)
- [Fast Transformer Decoding: One Write-Head is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02150/) (2019)
- [DistServe: Disaggregating Prefill and Decoding for Goodput-optimized Large Language Model Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.09670/) (2024)
- [FlexGen: High-Throughput Generative Inference of Large Language Models with a Single GPU](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06865/) (2023)
- [Splitwise: Efficient generative LLM inference using phase splitting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18677/) (2023)
- [Taming Throughput-Latency Tradeoff in LLM Inference with Sarathi-Serve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02310/) (2024)
- [Model Tells You What to Discard: Adaptive KV Cache Compression for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01801/) (2023)
- [LMSYS-Chat-1M: A Large-Scale Real-World LLM Conversation Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.11998/) (2023)
- [Scissorhands: Exploiting the Persistence of Importance Hypothesis for LLM KV Cache Compression at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17118/) (2023)
- [DeepSpeed Inference: Enabling Efficient Inference of Transformer Models at Unprecedented Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00032/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Efficient Inference for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14294/) (2024)
- [Mooncake: A KVCache-centric Disaggregated Architecture for LLM Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00079/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model Acceleration based on KV Cache Management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19442/) (2024)
- [LMCache: An Efficient KV Cache Layer for Enterprise-Scale LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09665/) (2025)
- [Infinite-LLM: Efficient LLM Service for Long Context with DistAttention and Distributed KVCache](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02669/) (2024)
- [CXL-SpecKV: A Disaggregated FPGA Speculative KV-Cache for Datacenter LLM Serving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.11920/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Unified AI Gateway: A Framework for Joint Model Routing and KV Cache Management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06940/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Key-value (KV) cache memory management is the primary bottleneck limiting throughput and cost-efficiency in large-scale GPU inference serving. Current systems suffer from three compounding inefficiencies: (1) the absence of unified KV cache sizing across all attention architectures--particularly multi-head latent attention (MLA), which is unsupported in general-purpose frameworks, resulting in up to 57x memory over-provisioning; (2) confinement of KV cache to a single memory tier (GPU HBM) despite the availability of a rich hierarchy spanning CPU DRAM, CXL-attached memory, NVMe via GPUDirect Storage, RDMA fabric, and parallel filesystems; and (3) reactive eviction policies that discard reusable state, forcing redundant recomputation. We present a unified system addressing all three. Our architecture-variant-aware sizing engine computes exact memory requirements per attention type; the resulting batch size gain reaches 7.4x for the one MLA model we evaluate (DeepSeek-V3), while the three GQA models see 1.0x, 1.0x, and 0.7x, so the GQA benefit is fleet-wide unified sizing rather than larger per-model batches. A six-tier memory hierarchy extends effective KV cache capacity from 40 GB to over 38 TB per node while maintaining sub-millisecond time-to-first-token (TTFT) for hot entries. A Bayesian reuse predictor with Beta conjugate priors over 16 (block-type, transition-type) pairs drives EMA-scored head-granular eviction and RoPE-aware prefetching. Component-level validation on trace replay using ShareGPT, LMSYS-Chat-1M, and agentic workloads demonstrates 70-84% cache hit rates. Analytical projections combining validated component behavior with published hardware specifications indicate TTFT reductions of 1.4x to 2.1x, throughput improvements of 1.7x to 2.9x, and 47% cost reduction relative to published baselines; these cluster-scale projections are analytical and carry no error bars.