# When Hidden States Drift: Can KV Caches Rescue Long-Range Speculative Decoding?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.26412 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.26412/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Speculative decoding, one of 12 directions in Efficient LLM inference and serving.
- Builds on 23 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Speculative decoding](https://mlsanity.com/inference/speculative-decoding/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.17192/) (2022)
- [Accelerating Large Language Model Decoding with Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01318/) (2023)
- [Medusa: Simple LLM Inference Acceleration Framework with Multiple Decoding Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10774/) (2024)
- [EAGLE: Speculative Sampling Requires Rethinking Feature Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15077/) (2024)
- [EAGLE-2: Faster Inference of Language Models with Dynamic Draft Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16858/) (2024)
- [SpecInfer: Accelerating Generative Large Language Model Serving with Tree-based Speculative Inference and Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09781/) (2023)
- [Better & Faster Large Language Models via Multi-token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19737/) (2024)
- [EAGLE-3: Scaling up Inference Acceleration of Large Language Models via Training-Time Test](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01840/) (2025)
- [Break the Sequential Dependency of LLM Inference Using Lookahead Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02057/) (2024)
- [Unlocking Efficiency in Large Language Model Inference: A Comprehensive Survey of Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.07851/) (2024)
- [DFlash: Block Diffusion for Flash Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06036/) (2026)
- [Sequoia: Scalable, Robust, and Hardware-aware Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12374/) (2024)
- [PEARL: Parallel Speculative Decoding with Adaptive Draft Length](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11850/) (2024)
- [GliDe with a CaPE: A Low-Hassle Method to Accelerate Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02082/) (2024)
- [Learning Harmonized Representations for Speculative Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15766/) (2024)
- [SWIFT: On-the-Fly Self-Speculative Decoding for LLM Inference Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.06916/) (2024)
- [LongSpec: Long-Context Lossless Speculative Decoding with Efficient Drafting and Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17421/) (2025)
- [Double: Breaking the Acceleration Limit via Double Retrieval Speculative Parallelism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05524/) (2026)
- [SpecBranch: Speculative Decoding via Hybrid Drafting and Rollback-Aware Branch Parallelism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01979/) (2025)
- [LogitSpec: Accelerating Retrieval-based Speculative Decoding via Next Next Token Speculation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.01449/) (2025)
- [TALON: Confidence-Aware Speculative Decoding with Adaptive Token Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.07353/) (2026)
- [KNN-SSD: Enabling Dynamic Self-Speculative Decoding via Nearest Neighbor Layer Set Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16162/) (2025)
- [HIPPO: Accelerating Video Large Language Models Inference via Holistic-aware Parallel Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.08273/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Draft Less, Retrieve More: Hybrid Tree Construction for Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20104/) (2026)
- [D-cut: Adaptive Verification Depth Pruning for Batched Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.14647/) (2026)
- [TailSieve: Partial-Rollout-Guided Tail Routing for LLM Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.22788/) (2026)
- [Reasoning-aware Speculative Decoding for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.31160/) (2026)
- [ReaDy: Recurrent States as Dynamic Context for Speculative Drafting in Hybrid Linear Attention Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.20503/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference, but SOTA hidden-state-based drafters suffer from long-range decay: draft accuracy degrades as the speculative step increases. Existing work attributes this decay to train-inference mismatch and proposes test-time training (TTT) as a remedy, yet we observe that long-range decay persists even in TTT-trained drafters. We revisit long-range decay from the perspective of context information preservation. In hidden-state reuse, we argue the target hidden state acts as a biased context compression: it aggregates historical token information according to the attention query at the current position, yielding a compact representation optimized for immediate next-token prediction. This compression can suppress information less relevant to the current query but important for later speculative steps. In contrast, the target model's KV cache serves as an explicit context, retaining the complete set of token-wise KV representations. We therefore posit the KV-Reuse Hypothesis: allowing the draft model to reuse the target KV cache can provide richer signals for long-horizon drafting. To test this hypothesis, we introduce KVShot, a diagnostic framework that compares three reuse paradigms: hidden-only, KV-only, and hybrid. Extensive evaluations on Qwen3-8B show that KV-Reuse improves long-range acceptance, although end-to-end speedups remain marginal under current training pipelines. Our analysis identifies two key structural bottlenecks: shallow drafters struggle to estimate target queries accurately, and draft-side KV projections receive sparse gradient signals. These findings suggest that realizing the full potential of KV-aware decoding requires moving beyond TTT toward block-wise training paradigms. By exposing these bottlenecks, KVShot provides a foundational diagnostic testbed and a clear roadmap for designing next-generation inference architectures.