# SIEVES: Selective Prediction Generalizes through Visual Evidence Scoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25855 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25855/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 36 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/vlm-benchmarks-and-visual-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 36)

- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Segment Anything](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02643/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [Making the V in VQA Matter: Elevating the Role of Image Understanding in Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00837/) (2016)
- [VQA: Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.00468/) (2015)
- [LlamaFactory: Unified Efficient Fine-Tuning of 100+ Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13372/) (2024)
- [VizWiz Grand Challenge: Answering Visual Questions from Blind People](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08218/) (2018)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Training Deep Nets with Sublinear Memory Cost](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.06174/) (2016)
- [V*: Guided Visual Search as a Core Mechanism in Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14135/) (2023)
- [DeepEyes: Incentivizing "Thinking with Images" via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14362/) (2025)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [MME-RealWorld: Could Your Multimodal LLM Challenge High-Resolution Real-World Scenarios that are Difficult for Humans?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13257/) (2024)
- [Pixel Reasoner: Incentivizing Pixel-Space Reasoning with Curiosity-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15966/) (2025)
- [Visual Sketchpad: Sketching as a Visual Chain of Thought for Multimodal Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09403/) (2024)
- [Why Language Models Hallucinate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.04664/) (2025)
- [Divide, Conquer and Combine: A Training-Free Framework for High-Resolution Image Perception in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.15556/) (2024)
- [Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18418/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Must Be Taught to Know What They Don't Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08391/) (2024)
- [Reliable Visual Question Answering: Abstain Rather Than Answer Incorrectly](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.13631/) (2022)
- [On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14737/) (2024)
- [Towards Complex Document Understanding By Discrete Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.11871/) (2022)
- [Human-Adversarial Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02280/) (2021)
- [Confidence Regulation Neurons in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16254/) (2024)
- [Overconfidence is Key: Verbalized Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language and Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02917/) (2024)
- [Adaptation with Self-Evaluation to Improve Selective Prediction in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11689/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Whose record is this? Diagnosing and authorizing record use in personalized multimodal models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04801/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) achieve ever-stronger performance on visual-language tasks. Even as traditional visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks approach saturation, reliable deployment requires satisfying low error tolerances in real-world, out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. Precisely, selective prediction aims to improve coverage, i.e. the share of inputs the system answers, while adhering to a user-defined risk level. This is typically achieved by assigning a confidence score to each answer and abstaining on those that fall below a certain threshold. Existing selective prediction methods estimate implicit confidence scores, relying on model internal signals like logits or hidden representations, which are not available for frontier closed-sourced models. To enable reliable generalization in VQA, we require reasoner models to produce localized visual evidence while answering, and design a selector that explicitly learns to estimate the quality of the localization provided by the reasoner using only model inputs and outputs. We show that SIEVES (Selective Prediction through Visual Evidence Scoring) improves coverage by up to three times on challenging OOD benchmarks (V* Bench, HR-Bench-8k, MME-RealWorld-Lite, VizWiz, and AdVQA), compared to non-grounding baselines. Beyond better generalization to OOD tasks, the design of the SIEVES selector enables transfer to proprietary reasoners without access to their weights or logits, such as o3 and Gemini-3-Pro, providing coverage boosts beyond those attributable to accuracy alone. We highlight that SIEVES generalizes across all tested OOD benchmarks and reasoner models (Pixel-Reasoner, o3, and Gemini-3-Pro), without benchmark- or reasoner-specific training or adaptation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/hector-gr/SIEVES .