# Walking Through Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of Uncertainty Estimation for Audio-Aware Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25591 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25591/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 98 of its 99 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 98)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Scaling Language Models: Methods, Analysis & Insights from Training Gopher](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11446/) (2021)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Qwen2.5-Omni Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20215/) (2025)
- [Phi-4-Mini Technical Report: Compact yet Powerful Multimodal Language Models via Mixture-of-LoRAs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01743/) (2025)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07892/) (2020)
- [MMAU: A Massive Multi-Task Audio Understanding and Reasoning Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19168/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18153/) (2023)
- [Audio Flamingo 3: Advancing Audio Intelligence with Fully Open Large Audio Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.08128/) (2025)
- [Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14983/) (2020)
- [Listen, Think, and Understand](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10790/) (2023)
- [Don't Hallucinate, Abstain: Identifying LLM Knowledge Gaps via Multi-LLM Collaboration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00367/) (2024)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [AdaptThink: Reasoning Models Can Learn When to Think](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13417/) (2025)
- [Audio Flamingo 2: An Audio-Language Model with Long-Audio Understanding and Expert Reasoning Abilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03983/) (2025)
- [AutoMix: Automatically Mixing Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12963/) (2023)
- [Know Your Limits: A Survey of Abstention in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18418/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [The Sound of Absence: Audio-Language Embedding Models Struggle with Negation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12290/) (2026)
- [Improving Text-to-Audio Instruction Following via Fine-Grained Feedback from Audio-Aware Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.13408/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Decision Making in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17084/) (2026)
- [Broadening Uncertainty Estimation for Audio Question Answering Across Methods, Formats, and Inputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.28879/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent audio-aware large language models (ALLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities across diverse audio understanding and reasoning tasks, but they still frequently produce hallucinated or overly confident outputs. While uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in text-only LLMs, it remains largely unexplored for ALLMs, where audio-conditioned generation introduces additional challenges such as perceptual ambiguity and cross-modal grounding. In this work, we present the first systematic empirical study of uncertainty estimation in ALLMs. We benchmark five representative methods, including predictive entropy, length-normalized entropy, semantic entropy, discrete semantic entropy, and P(True), across multiple models and diverse evaluation settings spanning general audio understanding, reasoning, hallucination detection, and unanswerable question answering. Our results reveal two key findings. First, semantic-level and verification-based methods consistently outperform token-level baselines on general audio reasoning benchmarks. Second, on trustworthiness-oriented benchmarks, the relative effectiveness of uncertainty methods becomes notably more model- and benchmark-dependent, indicating that conclusions drawn from general reasoning settings do not straightforwardly transfer to hallucination and unanswerable-question scenarios. We further explore uncertainty-based adaptive inference as a potential downstream application. We hope this study provides a foundation for future research on reliable, uncertainty-aware audio-language systems.