# RCProb: Probabilistic rule extraction from classification tree ensembles

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25304 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25304/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [Forest-ORE: Mining Optimal Rule Ensemble to interpret Random Forest models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17588/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Tree ensembles provide strong classification performance but usually behave as black-box models. Post-hoc interpretability techniques such as RuleCOSI+ extract a small ruleset that approximates the ensemble, but this simplification can leave the probabilities attached to the extracted rules unreliable. In particular, RuleCOSI+ assigns empirical class probabilities to the extracted rules and repeatedly uses those rule statistics during its greedy combination and simplification procedure. We present RCProb, a probabilistic extension that uses smoothed atomic class-conditional evidence for the expensive search stages and a support-adaptive mixture with an ensemble-informed m-estimate for the final rule probabilities. The method is evaluated on 18 binary and 5 multiclass datasets using random forest (RF) and gradient boosting machine (GBM) ensembles. Relative to RuleCOSI+, the median paired log-loss reduction is 71.9% for RF and 62.5% for GBM, with both differences remaining significant after Holm correction. The number of rules decreases by 38.7% for RF and 38.5% for GBM, while the primary tests do not detect a macro-F1 difference. Confidence-ECE also decreases for both ensembles, with statistical support for RF after correction. A separate controlled experiment with dedicated calibration data shows that native RCProb probabilities are competitive with RuleCOSI+ followed by temperature scaling, although additional post-hoc calibration can still improve RCProb. The results show that probability estimation is an important part of rule extraction and not only a post-processing step.