# The Dynamics of Delusion: Modeling Bidirectional False Belief Amplification in Human-Chatbot Dialogue

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25096 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25096/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.13548/) (2023)
- [Confabulation: The Surprising Value of Large Language Model Hallucinations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04175/) (2024)
- [Consistently Simulating Human Personas with Multi-Turn Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.00222/) (2025)
- [Sycophantic Chatbots Cause Delusional Spiraling, Even in Ideal Bayesians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.19141/) (2026)
- [Technological folie `a deux: Feedback Loops Between AI Chatbots and Mental Illness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19218/) (2025)
- [The Psychogenic Machine: Simulating AI Psychosis, Delusion Reinforcement and Harm Enablement in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.10970/) (2025)
- [LLM Spirals of Delusion: A Benchmarking Audit Study of AI Chatbot Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06188/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Escape from Delusional Echo Trap: Symmetry Breaking, Stochastic Dynamics and Mathematical Mitigation Strategies for Algorithmic Sycophancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20718/) (2026)
- [Relational Positioning as a Measurable Risk Object: History-Carried Lock-in and Self-Confabulation in Multi-Turn Human-AI Dialogue](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.11437/) (2026)
- [DelusionEval: Measuring Delusion-Linked Behaviors in AI Chatbots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05004/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

There is growing concern that AI chatbots might fuel delusional beliefs in users. Some have suggested that humans and chatbots mutually reinforce false beliefs over time, but quantitative evidence is lacking. Using a unique dataset of chat logs from individuals who exhibited delusional thinking, we developed a latent state model that captures accumulating and decaying influences between humans and chatbots. We find that a bidirectional influence model substantially outperforms a unidirectional alternative where humans are the primary driver of delusion. We find that humans exert strong but short-lived influence on chatbots, whereas chatbots exert longer-lasting influence on humans. Moreover, chatbots exert strong, stable self-influence over their own future outputs that tends to perpetuate delusions over long stretches of conversation. In fact, this chatbot self-influence constituted the dominant pathway when considering accumulated influence over time. Overall, these results indicate that humans tend to drive sharp, immediate increases in delusion, whereas chatbots sustain and propagate these effects over longer timescales. Together, these findings provide the first empirical, quantitative evidence that human-chatbot interactions can form feedback loops of delusion, decomposable into distinct pathways with dissociable temporal dynamics. By doing so, they can inform the development of safer AI systems.