# Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.24913 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.24913/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 13 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Group Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.08494/) (2018)
- [RePaint: Inpainting using Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.09865/) (2022)
- [Towards Coherent Image Inpainting Using Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03322/) (2023)
- [A Theoretical Justification for Image Inpainting using Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01217/) (2023)
- [Flusion: Integrating multiple data sources for accurate influenza predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.19054/) (2024)
- [Evaluating Forecasts with scoringutils in R](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.07090/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet it is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture multimodal uncertainty or emergent trends. Influpaint adapts denoising diffusion probabilistic models to epidemic forecasting. By encoding influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images in which pixel intensity represents incidence, Influpaint learns a rich distribution of disease dynamics from a hybrid dataset of surveillance and simulated trajectories. Forecasting is formulated as a conditional generation (inpainting) task from partial observations. We show that Influpaint generates realistic, diverse epidemic trajectories and achieves forecast accuracy that is competitive with leading ensemble methods in retrospective evaluation. In real-time evaluation during the 2023--2025 U.S. CDC FluSight challenges, performance improved substantially across seasons, with highly accurate but somewhat overconfident projections in 2023--2025. The best performance was achieved with a training dataset containing 30% surveillance and 70% simulated trajectories. These results show that diffusion models can capture important spatiotemporal structure in influenza dynamics and provide a flexible framework for probabilistic infectious disease forecasting.