# GeoCert: Certified Geometric AI for Reliable Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.23474 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23474/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 46 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Scientific Machine Learning through Physics-Informed Neural Networks: Where we are and What's next](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.05624/) (2022)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [Beta-CROWN: Efficient Bound Propagation with Per-neuron Split Constraints for Complete and Incomplete Neural Network Robustness Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.06624/) (2021)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [Fast and Complete: Enabling Complete Neural Network Verification with Rapid and Massively Parallel Incomplete Verifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13824/) (2020)
- [A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03759/) (2023)
- [Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07972/) (2020)
- [Is Mamba Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11144/) (2024)
- [SiMBA: Simplified Mamba-Based Architecture for Vision and Multivariate Time series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15360/) (2024)
- [Neural Dynamics on Complex Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.06491/) (2019)
- [Graph Attention Recurrent Neural Networks for Correlated Time Series Forecasting -- Full version](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.10760/) (2021)
- [BERN-NN: Tight Bound Propagation For Neural Networks Using Bernstein Polynomial Interval Arithmetic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14438/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting systems in science must be accurate, physically consistent, and certifiably reliable. Most existing models address prediction, constraint enforcement, and verification separately, limiting scalability and interpretability. We introduce GeoCert, a geometric AI framework that unifies forecasting, physical reasoning, and formal verification within a single differentiable computation. GeoCert formulates forecasting as evolution along a hyperbolic manifold, where negative curvature induces contraction dynamics, intrinsic robustness, and logarithmic-time certification. A hierarchical constraint architecture separates universal physical laws from domain-specific dynamics, enabling certified generalization across energy, climate, finance, and transportation systems. GeoCert achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing computational cost by 97.5% and maintaining better certification rates. By embedding verification into the geometry of learning, GeoCert transforms forecasting from empirical approximation to formally verified inference, offering a scalable foundation for trustworthy, reproducible, and physically grounded scientific AI.