# When Graph Structure Becomes a Liability: A Critical Re-Evaluation of Graph Neural Networks for Bitcoin Fraud Detection under Temporal Distribution Shift

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19514 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19514/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Learning under Concept Drift: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05785/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Adversarial Attacks on Neural Networks for Graph Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07984/) (2018)
- [Graph-based Anomaly Detection and Description: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.4679/) (2014)
- [Anti-Money Laundering in Bitcoin: Experimenting with Graph Convolutional Networks for Financial Forensics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.02591/) (2019)
- [A Semi-supervised Graph Attentive Network for Financial Fraud Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01171/) (2020)
- [GraphSMOTE: Imbalanced Node Classification on Graphs with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.08826/) (2021)
- [ROLAND: Graph Learning Framework for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07239/) (2022)
- [GeniePath: Graph Neural Networks with Adaptive Receptive Paths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.00910/) (2018)
- [Inspection-L: Self-Supervised GNN Node Embeddings for Money Laundering Detection in Bitcoin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10465/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The consensus that GCN, GraphSAGE, GAT, and EvolveGCN outperform feature-only baselines on the Elliptic Bitcoin Dataset is widely cited but has not been rigorously stress-tested under a leakage-free evaluation protocol. We perform a seed-matched inductive-versus-transductive comparison and find that this consensus does not hold. Under a strictly inductive protocol, Random Forest on raw features achieves F1 = 0.821 and outperforms all evaluated GNNs, while GraphSAGE reaches F1 = 0.689 +/- 0.017. A paired controlled experiment reveals a 39.5-point F1 gap attributable to training-time exposure to test-period adjacency. Additionally, edge-shuffle ablations show that randomly wired graphs outperform the real transaction graph, indicating that the dataset's topology can be misleading under temporal distribution shift. Hybrid models combining GNN embeddings with raw features provide only marginal gains and remain substantially below feature-only baselines. We release code, checkpoints, and a strict-inductive protocol to enable reproducible, leakage-free evaluation.