# Instinct vs. Reflection: Unifying Token and Verbalized Confidence in Multimodal Large Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.17274 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.17274/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MLLM training and visual instruction tuning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 45 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [MLLM training and visual instruction tuning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/mllm-training-and-visual-instruction-tuning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 45)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Qwen2-VL: Enhancing Vision-Language Model's Perception of the World at Any Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12191/) (2024)
- [MMBench: Is Your Multi-modal Model an All-around Player?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06281/) (2023)
- [Learn to Explain: Multimodal Reasoning via Thought Chains for Science Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.09513/) (2022)
- [InternVL3: Exploring Advanced Training and Test-Time Recipes for Open-Source Multimodal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10479/) (2025)
- [MathVista: Evaluating Mathematical Reasoning of Foundation Models in Visual Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02255/) (2023)
- [Expanding Performance Boundaries of Open-Source Multimodal Models with Model, Data, and Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05271/) (2024)
- [InternVL3.5: Advancing Open-Source Multimodal Models in Versatility, Reasoning, and Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18265/) (2025)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [MiniCPM-V: A GPT-4V Level MLLM on Your Phone](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.01800/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Are We on the Right Way for Evaluating Large Vision-Language Models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20330/) (2024)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [A Diagram Is Worth A Dozen Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.07396/) (2016)
- [DeepSeek-VL: Towards Real-World Vision-Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05525/) (2024)
- [Phi-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.08905/) (2024)
- [MMMU-Pro: A More Robust Multi-discipline Multimodal Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02813/) (2024)
- [Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02757/) (2019)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08298/) (2023)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06233/) (2025)
- [Calibrating Language Models with Adaptive Temperature Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19817/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: Theory Meets Practice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15326/) (2024)
- [Overconfidence is Key: Verbalized Uncertainty Evaluation in Large Language and Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02917/) (2024)
- [Explainable and Interpretable Multimodal Large Language Models: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.02104/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Grounded or Guessing? LVLM Confidence Estimation via Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.10893/) (2026)
- [Calibrated Triage, Not Autonomy: Confidence Estimation for Medical Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15910/) (2026)
- [Ranking-Aware Calibration for Reliable Multimodal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16999/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Decision Making in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17084/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in various perception and reasoning tasks. Despite this success, ensuring their reliability in practical deployment necessitates robust confidence estimation. Prior works have predominantly focused on text-only LLMs, often relying on computationally expensive self-consistency sampling. In this paper, we extend this to multimodal settings and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of MLLMs' response confidence estimation. Our analysis reveals a significant instinct-reflection misalignment: the model's implicit token-level support frequently diverges from its verbal self-assessment confidence. To address this misalignment, we propose a monotone confidence fusion framework to merge dual-channel signals and cross-channel consistency to estimate correctness. Subsequently, an order-preserving mean alignment step is applied to correct global bias, which improves calibration while preserving the risk-coverage trade-off for selective prediction. Experiments on diverse open-source and closed-source MLLMs show that our method consistently yields more reliable confidence estimates and improves both calibration and failure prediction. Code will be available at https://github.com/Yunkaidang/Instinct-vs.-Reflection.