# Learning Uncertainty from Sequential Internal Dispersion in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15741 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.15741/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [FEVER: a large-scale dataset for Fact Extraction and VERification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05355/) (2018)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in Large Language Model Representations of True/False Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06824/) (2023)
- [Language Models are Multilingual Chain-of-Thought Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03057/) (2022)
- [Prompting GPT-3 To Be Reliable](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.09150/) (2022)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [Lookback Lens: Detecting and Mitigating Contextual Hallucinations in Large Language Models Using Only Attention Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07071/) (2024)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [Explore, Establish, Exploit: Red Teaming Language Models from Scratch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09442/) (2023)
- [Enhancing Uncertainty-Based Hallucination Detection with Stronger Focus](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13230/) (2023)
- [LLM Internal States Reveal Hallucination Risk Faced With a Query](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.03282/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [Latent Space Chain-of-Embedding Enables Output-free LLM Self-Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13640/) (2024)
- [A Head to Predict and a Head to Question: Pre-trained Uncertainty Quantification Heads for Hallucination Detection in LLM Outputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.08200/) (2025)
- [Too Consistent to Detect: A Study of Self-Consistent Errors in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17656/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [HalluTracer: Pre-Decoding Truthfulness Prediction via Depth-Averaged Probe-Logit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16353/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncertainty estimation is a promising approach to detect hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). Recent approaches commonly depend on model internal states to estimate uncertainty. However, they suffer from strict assumptions on how hidden states should evolve across layers, and from information loss by solely focusing on last or mean tokens. To address these issues, we present Sequential Internal Variance Representation (SIVR), a supervised hallucination detection framework that leverages token-wise, layer-wise features derived from hidden states. SIVR adopts a more basic assumption that uncertainty manifests in the degree of dispersion or variance of internal representations across layers, rather than relying on specific assumptions, which makes the method model and task agnostic. It additionally aggregates the full sequence of per-token variance features, learning temporal patterns indicative of factual errors and thereby preventing information loss. Experimental results demonstrate SIVR consistently outperforms strong baselines. Most importantly, SIVR enjoys stronger generalisation and avoids relying on large training sets, highlighting the potential for practical deployment. Our code repository is available online at https://github.com/ponhvoan/internal-variance.