# Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15719 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.15719/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Voyager: An Open-Ended Embodied Agent with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16291/) (2023)
- [GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12983/) (2023)
- [A-MEM: Agentic Memory for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12110/) (2025)
- [Math-Shepherd: Verify and Reinforce LLMs Step-by-step without Human Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08935/) (2023)
- [ExpeL: LLM Agents Are Experiential Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10144/) (2023)
- [BrowseComp: A Simple Yet Challenging Benchmark for Browsing Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.12516/) (2025)
- [GEPA: Reflective Prompt Evolution Can Outperform Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19457/) (2025)
- [Agentic Context Engineering: Evolving Contexts for Self-Improving Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04618/) (2025)
- [Meta-Harness: End-to-End Optimization of Model Harnesses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.28052/) (2026)
- [ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19839/) (2024)
- [Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18563/) (2024)
- [MemEvolve: Meta-Evolution of Agent Memory Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18746/) (2025)
- [Agent KB: Leveraging Cross-Domain Experience for Agentic Problem Solving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06229/) (2025)
- [AutoHarness: improving LLM agents by automatically synthesizing a code harness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03329/) (2026)
- [SPA-RL: Reinforcing LLM Agents via Stepwise Progress Attribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20732/) (2025)
- [Forecasting Future World Events with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.15474/) (2022)
- [ForecastQA: A Question Answering Challenge for Event Forecasting with Temporal Text Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00792/) (2020)
- [Flash-Searcher: Fast and Effective Web Agents via DAG-Based Parallel Execution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25301/) (2025)
- [Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17989/) (2025)
- [Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.21558/) (2025)
- [Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.25070/) (2025)
- [Encouraging Good Processes Without the Need for Good Answers: Reinforcement Learning for LLM Agent Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.19598/) (2025)
- [MiroFlow: Towards High-Performance and Robust Open-Source Agent Framework for General Deep Research Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.22808/) (2026)
- [Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.06336/) (2026)
- [PROPHET: An Inferable Future Forecasting Benchmark with Causal Intervened Likelihood Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01509/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Distilling Temporal Search and Reasoning: Evolving LLMs for Future Prediction via Harness-Assisted Efficient Data Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.25554/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Many high-stakes decisions depend on forecasts made before outcomes are known. In this future prediction setting, the central challenge is that public evidence evolves over time, while the main supervision signal arrives only after resolution: the realized outcome mainly assesses final correctness, offering only coarse guidance on what to track, what to verify, and which judgments to leave uncertain along the way. Our key observation is that revisiting the same unresolved question over time creates informative temporal contrasts across evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, exposing what earlier attempts missed before resolution and yielding a diagnostic signal we call the pre-resolution signal. We instantiate this idea in Milkyway, a future prediction agent with a persistent future prediction harness, an editable external state that stores reusable procedural guidance across revisits to the same unresolved question. As the same unresolved question is revisited, Milkyway extracts pre-resolution signals from evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, uses them to update the harness, and improves later forecasts on that question before resolution. After resolution, the realized outcome serves as a post-resolution check of provisional updates. On the FutureX and FutureWorld benchmarks, Milkyway achieves strong performance against competitive baselines, and a mechanism study suggests that the gains stem from harness evolution driven by pre-resolution signals rather than repeated prediction alone.