# Assessing the Potential of Masked Autoencoder Foundation Models in Predicting Downhole Metrics from Surface Drilling Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15169 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.15169/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Parameter-Efficient Transfer Learning for NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.00751/) (2019)
- [MultiMAE: Multi-modal Multi-task Masked Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01678/) (2022)
- [Ti-MAE: Self-Supervised Masked Time Series Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08871/) (2023)
- [MTSMAE: Masked Autoencoders for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02199/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Oil and gas drilling operations generate extensive time-series data from surface sensors, yet accurate real-time prediction of critical downhole metrics remains challenging due to the scarcity of labelled downhole measurements. This systematic mapping study reviews thirteen papers published between 2015 and 2025 to assess the potential of Masked Autoencoder Foundation Models (MAEFMs) for predicting downhole metrics from surface drilling data. The review identifies eight commonly collected surface metrics and seven target downhole metrics. Current approaches predominantly employ neural network architectures such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, yet no studies have explored MAEFMs despite their demonstrated effectiveness in time-series modeling. MAEFMs offer distinct advantages through self-supervised pre-training on abundant unlabeled data, enabling multi-task prediction and improved generalization across wells. This research establishes that MAEFMs represent a technically feasible but unexplored opportunity for drilling analytics, recommending future empirical validation of their performance against existing models and exploration of their broader applicability in oil and gas operations.