# Transformers Learn Latent Mixture Models In-Context via Mirror Descent

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.10848 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.10848/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Rethinking the Role of Demonstrations: What Makes In-Context Learning Work?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12837/) (2022)
- [Self-Attention with Relative Position Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02155/) (2018)
- [In-context Learning and Induction Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11895/) (2022)
- [An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02080/) (2021)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14997/) (2023)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Are Transformers universal approximators of sequence-to-sequence functions?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.10077/) (2019)
- [Trained Transformers Learn Linear Models In-Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09927/) (2023)
- [Data Distributional Properties Drive Emergent In-Context Learning in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05055/) (2022)
- [Transformers as Statisticians: Provable In-Context Learning with In-Context Algorithm Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04637/) (2023)
- [Transformers learn to implement preconditioned gradient descent for in-context learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00297/) (2023)
- [One Step of Gradient Descent is Provably the Optimal In-Context Learner with One Layer of Linear Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03576/) (2023)
- [Birth of a Transformer: A Memory Viewpoint](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00802/) (2023)
- [Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15063/) (2023)
- [What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19420/) (2023)
- [The Evolution of Statistical Induction Heads: In-Context Learning Markov Chains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11004/) (2024)
- [How Transformers Learn Causal Structure with Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14735/) (2024)
- [Uncovering mesa-optimization algorithms in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.05858/) (2023)
- [What needs to go right for an induction head? A mechanistic study of in-context learning circuits and their formation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.07129/) (2024)
- [How Do Transformers Learn Topic Structure: Towards a Mechanistic Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04245/) (2023)
- [Transformers, parallel computation, and logarithmic depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09268/) (2024)
- [Transformers represent belief state geometry in their residual stream](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15943/) (2024)
- [Asymptotic theory of in-context learning by linear attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.11751/) (2024)
- [Unveiling Induction Heads: Provable Training Dynamics and Feature Learning in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.10559/) (2024)
- [Transformers Learn to Achieve Second-Order Convergence Rates for In-Context Linear Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17086/) (2023)
- [Pretraining Data Mixtures Enable Narrow Model Selection Capabilities in Transformer Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.00871/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Induction Heads Interpolate N-Grams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.02800/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Sequence modelling requires determining which past tokens are causally relevant from the context and their importance: a process inherent to the attention layers in transformers, yet whose underlying learned mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we formalize the task of estimating token importance as an in-context learning problem by introducing a framework based on Mixture of Transition Distributions, where a latent variable determines the influence of past tokens on the next. The distribution over this latent variable is parameterized by unobserved mixture weights that transformers must learn in-context. We demonstrate that transformers can implement Mirror Descent to learn these weights from the context. Specifically, we give an explicit construction of a three-layer transformer that exactly implements one step of Mirror Descent and prove that the resulting estimator is a first-order approximation of the Bayes-optimal predictor. Corroborating our construction and its learnability via gradient descent, we empirically show that transformers trained from scratch learn solutions consistent with our theory: their predictive distributions, attention patterns, and learned transition matrix closely match the construction, while deeper models achieve performance comparable to multi-step Mirror Descent.