# Simulating Organized Group Behavior: New Framework, Benchmark, and Analysis

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.09874 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.09874/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

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- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [GPT-4o System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21276/) (2024)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [AgentSociety: Large-Scale Simulation of LLM-Driven Generative Agents Advances Understanding of Human Behaviors and Society](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08691/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Character Understanding of Large Language Models via Character Profiling from Fictional Works](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.12726/) (2024)
- [Simulating The U.S. Senate: An LLM-Driven Agent Approach to Modeling Legislative Behavior and Bipartisanship](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18702/) (2024)
- [Deriving Character Logic from Storyline as Codified Decision Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.10080/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Simulating how organized groups (e.g., corporations) make decisions (e.g., responding to a competitor's move) is essential for understanding real-world dynamics and could benefit relevant applications (e.g., market prediction). In this paper, we formalize this problem as a concrete research platform for group behavior understanding, providing: (1) a task formalization with benchmark and evaluation criteria, (2) a structured and adaptive analytical framework, and (3) detailed temporal and cross-group analysis. Specifically, we propose Organized Group Behavior Simulation, a task that models organized groups as collective entities from a practical perspective: given a group facing a particular situation (e.g., AI Boom), predict the decision it would take. To support this task, we present GROVE (GRoup Organizational BehaVior Evaluation), a benchmark covering 44 organized groups with 8,052 real-world context-decision pairs collected from Wikipedia and TechCrunch across 9 domains, with an end-to-end evaluation protocol assessing consistency, initiative, scope, magnitude, and horizon. Beyond straightforward prompting pipelines, we propose a structured analytical framework that converts collective decision-making events into an interpretable, adaptive, and traceable behavioral model, achieving stronger performance than summarization- and retrieval-based baselines. It further introduces an adapter mechanism for time-aware evolution and group-aware transfer, and traceable evidence nodes grounding each decision rule in originating historical events. Our analysis reveals temporal behavioral drift within individual groups, which the time-aware adapter effectively captures for stronger prediction, and structured cross-group similarity that enables knowledge transfer for data-scarce organizations.