# CAFP: A Post-Processing Framework for Group Fairness via Counterfactual Model Averaging

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07009 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.07009/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Equality of Opportunity in Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02413/) (2016)
- [Counterfactual Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06856/) (2017)
- [Certifying and removing disparate impact](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3756/) (2014)
- [Fair prediction with disparate impact: A study of bias in recidivism prediction instruments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.07524/) (2016)
- [A Reductions Approach to Fair Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02453/) (2018)
- [Inherent Trade-Offs in the Fair Determination of Risk Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.05807/) (2016)
- [The Woman Worked as a Babysitter: On Biases in Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01326/) (2019)
- [Men Also Like Shopping: Reducing Gender Bias Amplification using Corpus-level Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.09457/) (2017)
- [On Fairness and Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.02012/) (2017)
- [Fairness Beyond Disparate Treatment & Disparate Impact: Learning Classification without Disparate Mistreatment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.08452/) (2016)
- [Avoiding Discrimination through Causal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02744/) (2017)
- [Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08139/) (2018)
- [Fair Inference On Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.10378/) (2017)
- [Invariant Representations without Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.09458/) (2018)
- [FairBatch: Batch Selection for Model Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.01696/) (2020)
- [Fairness in Risk Assessment Instruments: Post-Processing to Achieve Counterfactual Equalized Odds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02841/) (2020)
- [Fairness Through Causal Awareness: Learning Latent-Variable Models for Biased Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02519/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ensuring fairness in machine learning predictions is a critical challenge, especially when models are deployed in sensitive domains such as credit scoring, healthcare, and criminal justice. While many fairness interventions rely on data preprocessing or algorithmic constraints during training, these approaches often require full control over the model architecture and access to protected attribute information, which may not be feasible in real-world systems. In this paper, we propose Counterfactual Averaging for Fair Predictions (CAFP), a model-agnostic post-processing method that mitigates unfair influence from protected attributes without retraining or modifying the original classifier. CAFP operates by generating counterfactual versions of each input in which the sensitive attribute is flipped, and then averaging the model's predictions across factual and counterfactual instances. We provide a theoretical analysis of CAFP, showing that it eliminates direct dependence on the protected attribute, reduces mutual information between predictions and sensitive attributes, and provably bounds the distortion introduced relative to the original model. Under mild assumptions, we further show that CAFP achieves perfect demographic parity and reduces the equalized odds gap by at least half the average counterfactual bias.