# The Detection-Extraction Gap: Models Know the Answer Before They Can Say It

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06613 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06613/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 21 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/prompting-and-chain-of-thought-reasoning/)
- Efficient LLM inference and serving / [Efficient reasoning and agent inference](https://mlsanity.com/inference/efficient-reasoning-and-agent-inference/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04388/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [LayerSkip: Enabling Early Exit Inference and Self-Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16710/) (2024)
- [To CoT or not to CoT? Chain-of-thought helps mainly on math and symbolic reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12183/) (2024)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [Reasoning Models Know When They're Right: Probing Hidden States for Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05419/) (2025)
- [The Danger of Overthinking: Examining the Reasoning-Action Dilemma in Agentic Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08235/) (2025)
- [EE-LLM: Large-Scale Training and Inference of Early-Exit Large Language Models with 3D Parallelism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.04916/) (2023)
- [Monitoring Monitorability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18311/) (2025)
- [Reasoning Theater: Disentangling Model Beliefs from Chain-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.05488/) (2026)
- [Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.08694/) (2024)
- [Text2Grad: Reinforcement Learning from Natural Language Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22338/) (2025)
- [Post-Hoc Reasoning in Chain of Thought: Decoding and Steering Pre-Committed Answers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.01437/) (2026)
- [Confidence Estimation for LLM-Based Dialogue State Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.09629/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Know When To Fold 'Em: Token-Efficient LLM Synthetic Data Generation via Multi-Stage In-Flight Rejection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14062/) (2026)
- [Decodable In-Context State and Model Output Across Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31401/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modern reasoning models continue generating long after the answer is already determined. Across five model configurations, two families, and three benchmarks, we find that 52--88% of chain-of-thought tokens are produced after the answer is recoverable from a partial prefix. This post-commitment generation reveals a structural phenomenon: the detection-extraction gap. Free continuations from early prefixes recover the correct answer even at 10% of the trace, while forced extraction fails on 42% of these cases. The answer is recoverable from the model state, yet prompt-conditioned decoding fails to extract it. We formalize this mismatch via a total-variation bound between free and forced continuation distributions, yielding quantitative estimates of suffix-induced shift. Exploiting this asymmetry, we propose Black-box Adaptive Early Exit (BAEE), which uses free continuations for both detection and extraction, truncating 70--78% of serial generation while improving accuracy by 1--5pp across all models. For thinking-mode models, early exit prevents post-commitment overwriting, yielding gains of up to 5.8pp; a cost-optimized variant achieves 68--73% reduction at a median of 9 API calls. Code is available at https://github.com/EdWangLoDaSc/know2say.