# Statistical Model Checking of the Island Model: An Established Economic Agent-Based Model of Endogenous Growth

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.04543 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.04543/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 6 Apr 2026.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Statistical Model Checking of the Keynes+Schumpeter Model: A Transient Sensitivity Analysis of a Macroeconomic ABM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.10447/) (2026)
- [Towards Agentic Agent-based Models: Feasibility, Performance, and Statistical Model Checking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.17948/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular Multi-VeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models.