# PolySwarm: A Multi-Agent Large Language Model Framework for Prediction Market Trading and Latency Arbitrage

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.03888 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.03888/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Financial trading and forecasting agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 24 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Apr 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Financial trading and forecasting agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/financial-trading-and-forecasting-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03629/) (2022)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [MetaGPT: Meta Programming for A Multi-Agent Collaborative Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00352/) (2023)
- [CAMEL: Communicative Agents for "Mind" Exploration of Large Language Model Society](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17760/) (2023)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.13548/) (2023)
- [Encouraging Divergent Thinking in Large Language Models through Multi-Agent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19118/) (2023)
- [BloombergGPT: A Large Language Model for Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17564/) (2023)
- [AgentVerse: Facilitating Multi-Agent Collaboration and Exploring Emergent Behaviors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10848/) (2023)
- [FinBERT: Financial Sentiment Analysis with Pre-trained Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10063/) (2019)
- [Good Debt or Bad Debt: Detecting Semantic Orientations in Economic Texts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1307.5336/) (2013)
- [FinGPT: Open-Source Financial Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06031/) (2023)
- [Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07619/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Agentic Trading: When LLM Agents Meet Financial Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19337/) (2026)
- [Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13038/) (2026)
- [When Do Language Models Add Value? Relative Competence in Hybrid Event Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.12101/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper presents PolySwarm, a novel multi-agent large language model (LLM) framework designed for real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket. PolySwarm deploys a swarm of 50 diverse LLM personas that concurrently evaluate binary outcome markets, aggregating individual probability estimates through confidence-weighted Bayesian combination of swarm consensus with market-implied probabilities, and applying quarter-Kelly position sizing for risk-controlled execution. The system incorporates an information-theoretic market analysis engine using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence to detect cross-market inefficiencies and negation pair mispricings. A latency arbitrage module exploits stale Polymarket prices by deriving CEX-implied probabilities from a log-normal pricing model and executing trades within the human reaction-time window. We provide a full architectural description, implementation details, and evaluation methodology using Brier scores, calibration analysis, and log-loss metrics benchmarked against human superforecaster performance. We further discuss open challenges including hallucination in agent pools, computational cost at scale, regulatory exposure, and feedback-loop risk, and outline five priority directions for future research. Experimental results demonstrate that swarm aggregation consistently outperforms single-model baselines in probability calibration on Polymarket prediction tasks.