# Neural posterior estimation for scalable and accurate inverse parameter inference in Li-ion batteries

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02520 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.02520/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

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- [Bayesian Parameter Estimation Applied to the Li-ion Battery Single Particle Model with Electrolyte Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.09890/) (2020)
- [PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference. Part I: Implementation and multi-fidelity hierarchies for the single-particle model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17329/) (2023)
- [PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference. Part II: Regularization and application of the pseudo-2D model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17336/) (2023)
- [Active Sequential Posterior Estimation for Sample-Efficient Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05590/) (2024)
- [Unlocking Extra Value from Grid Batteries Using Advanced Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11615/) (2020)
- [SUNDIALS Time Integrators for Exascale Applications with Many Independent ODE Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01713/) (2024)
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## Abstract (arXiv)

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE calibrates parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, and we demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters), but the NPE method can lead to higher voltage prediction errors. The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).