# PlayGen-MoG: Framework for Diverse Multi-Agent Play Generation via Mixture-of-Gaussians Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02447 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.02447/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Self-Attention with Relative Position Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02155/) (2018)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Non-Autoregressive Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.02281/) (2017)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08514/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10895/) (2023)
- [Coordinated Multi-Agent Imitation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.03121/) (2017)
- [Generating Multi-Agent Trajectories using Programmatic Weak Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.07612/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Multi-agent trajectory generation in team sports requires models that capture both the diversity of possible plays and realistic spatial coordination between players on plays. Standard generative approaches such as Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAE) and diffusion models struggle with this task, exhibiting posterior collapse or convergence to the dataset mean. Moreover, most trajectory prediction methods operate in a forecasting regime that requires multiple frames of observed history, limiting their use for play design where only the initial formation is available. We present PlayGen-MoG, an extensible framework for formation-conditioned play generation that addresses these challenges through three design choices: 1/ a Mixture-of-Gaussians (MoG) output head with shared mixture weights across all agents, where a single set of weights selects a play scenario that couples all players' trajectories, 2/ relative spatial attention that encodes pairwise player positions and distances as learned attention biases, and 3/ non-autoregressive prediction of absolute displacements from the initial formation, eliminating cumulative error drift and removing the dependence on observed trajectory history, enabling realistic play generation from a single static formation alone. On American football tracking data, PlayGen-MoG achieves 1.68 yard ADE and 3.98 yard FDE while maintaining full utilization of all 8 mixture components with entropy of 2.06 out of 2.08, and qualitatively confirming diverse generation without mode collapse.