# FTimeXer: Frequency-aware Time-series Transformer with Exogenous variables for Robust Carbon Footprint Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02347 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.02347/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Feb 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [SAITS: Self-Attention-based Imputation for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08516/) (2022)
- [ETSformer: Exponential Smoothing Transformers for Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01381/) (2022)
- [SimMTM: A Simple Pre-Training Framework for Masked Time-Series Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00861/) (2023)
- [Self-Supervised Transformer for Sparse and Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Clinical Time-Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.14293/) (2021)
- [Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05522/) (2021)
- [Frequency Adaptive Normalization For Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.20371/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Deep Learning based Time Series Analysis with Frequency Transformation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02173/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Exogenous Dropout: A Simple, Strong Baseline for Corruption-Robust Time Series Forecasting with Covariates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.05452/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate and up-to-date forecasting of the power grid's carbon footprint is crucial for effective product carbon footprint (PCF) accounting and informed decarbonization decisions. However, the carbon intensity of the grid exhibits high non-stationarity, and existing methods often struggle to effectively leverage periodic and oscillatory patterns. Furthermore, these methods tend to perform poorly when confronted with irregular exogenous inputs, such as missing data or misalignment. To tackle these challenges, we propose FTimeXer, a frequency-aware time-series Transformer designed with a robust training scheme that accommodates exogenous factors. FTimeXer features an Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-driven frequency branch combined with gated time-frequency fusion, allowing it to capture multi-scale periodicity effectively. It also employs stochastic exogenous masking in conjunction with consistency regularization, which helps reduce spurious correlations and enhance stability. Experiments conducted on three real-world datasets show consistent improvements over strong baselines. As a result, these enhancements lead to more reliable forecasts of grid carbon factors, which are essential for effective PCF accounting and informed decision-making regarding decarbonization.