# From Guessing to Placeholding: A Cost-Theoretic Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Code Completion

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01849 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01849/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

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- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
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- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [Code Llama: Open Foundation Models for Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12950/) (2023)
- [SWE-agent: Agent-Computer Interfaces Enable Automated Software Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15793/) (2024)
- [Competition-Level Code Generation with AlphaCode](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.07814/) (2022)
- [Qwen2.5-Coder Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12186/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-Coder: When the Large Language Model Meets Programming -- The Rise of Code Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.14196/) (2024)
- [OpenHands: An Open Platform for AI Software Developers as Generalist Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16741/) (2024)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [StarCoder: may the source be with you!](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06161/) (2023)
- [WizardCoder: Empowering Code Large Language Models with Evol-Instruct](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.08568/) (2023)
- [StarCoder 2 and The Stack v2: The Next Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19173/) (2024)
- [InCoder: A Generative Model for Code Infilling and Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05999/) (2022)
- [RepoCoder: Repository-Level Code Completion Through Iterative Retrieval and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12570/) (2023)
- [CodeRL: Mastering Code Generation through Pretrained Models and Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01780/) (2022)
- [DeepSeek-Coder-V2: Breaking the Barrier of Closed-Source Models in Code Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11931/) (2024)
- [Trusting Your Evidence: Hallucinate Less with Context-aware Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14739/) (2023)
- [The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06590/) (2023)
- [Efficient Training of Language Models to Fill in the Middle](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.14255/) (2022)
- [IntelliCode Compose: Code Generation Using Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08025/) (2020)
- [CodeGemma: Open Code Models Based on Gemma](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11409/) (2024)
- [Execution-based Code Generation using Deep Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13816/) (2023)
- [Productivity Assessment of Neural Code Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.06537/) (2022)
- [CERT: Continual Pre-Training on Sketches for Library-Oriented Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.06888/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional proficiency in code completion, they typically adhere to a Hard Completion (HC) paradigm, compelling the generation of fully concrete code even amidst insufficient context. Our analysis of 3 million real-world interactions exposes the limitations of this strategy: 61% of the generated suggestions were either edited after acceptance or rejected despite exhibiting over 80% similarity to the user's subsequent code, suggesting that models frequently make erroneous predictions at specific token positions. Motivated by this observation, we propose Adaptive Placeholder Completion (APC), a collaborative framework that extends HC by strategically outputting explicit placeholders at high-entropy positions, allowing users to fill directly via IDE navigation. Theoretically, we formulate code completion as a cost-minimization problem under uncertainty. Premised on the observation that filling placeholders incurs lower cost than correcting errors, we prove the existence of a critical entropy threshold above which APC achieves strictly lower expected cost than HC. We instantiate this framework by constructing training data from filtered real-world edit logs and design a cost-based reward function for reinforcement learning. Extensive evaluations across 1.5B--14B parameter models demonstrate that APC reduces expected editing costs from 19% to 50% while preserving standard HC performance. Our work provides both a theoretical foundation and a practical training framework for uncertainty-aware code completion, demonstrating that adaptive abstention can be learned end-to-end without sacrificing conventional completion quality.