# Wired for Overconfidence: A Mechanistic Perspective on Inflated Verbalized Confidence in LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01457 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.01457/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Apr 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Interpretability in the Wild: a Circuit for Indirect Object Identification in GPT-2 small](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00593/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Towards Automated Circuit Discovery for Mechanistic Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14997/) (2023)
- [Latent Retrieval for Weakly Supervised Open Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00300/) (2019)
- [LLMs Know More Than They Show: On the Intrinsic Representation of LLM Hallucinations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02707/) (2024)
- [How does GPT-2 compute greater-than?: Interpreting mathematical abilities in a pre-trained language model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00586/) (2023)
- [Have Faith in Faithfulness: Going Beyond Circuit Overlap When Finding Model Mechanisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17806/) (2024)
- [A Practical Review of Mechanistic Interpretability for Transformer-Based Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02646/) (2024)
- [Do I Know This Entity? Knowledge Awareness and Hallucinations in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.14257/) (2024)
- [Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09724/) (2024)
- [Can Large Language Models Faithfully Express Their Intrinsic Uncertainty in Words?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16908/) (2024)
- [Confidence Regulation Neurons in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16254/) (2024)
- [Calibrating Verbal Uncertainty as a Linear Feature to Reduce Hallucinations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14477/) (2025)
- [How do LLMs Compute Verbal Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.17839/) (2026)
- [Investigating Uncertainty Calibration of Aligned Language Models under the Multiple-Choice Setting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11732/) (2023)
- [Understanding Model Calibration -- A gentle introduction and visual exploration of calibration and the expected calibration error (ECE)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19047/) (2025)
- [ADVICE: Answer-Dependent Verbalized Confidence Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10913/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03969/) (2026)
- [Beyond Confidence: Rethinking Self-Assessments for Performance Prediction in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07806/) (2026)
- [Distilling Self-Consistency into Verbal Confidence: A Pre-Registered Negative Result and Post-Hoc Rescue on Gemma 3 4B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.24070/) (2026)
- [When Do Models Admit They Are Wrong? Failure Disclosure Is Unstable Under Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33220/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models are often not just wrong, but confidently wrong: when they produce factually incorrect answers, they tend to verbalize overly high confidence rather than signal uncertainty. Such verbalized overconfidence can mislead users and weaken confidence scores as a reliable uncertainty signal, yet its internal mechanisms remain poorly understood. We present a circuit-level mechanistic analysis of this inflated verbalized confidence in LLMs, organized around three axes: capturing verbalized confidence as a differentiable internal signal, identifying the circuits that causally inflate it, and leveraging these insights for targeted inference-time recalibration. Across two instruction-tuned LLMs on three datasets, we find that a compact set of MLP blocks and attention heads, concentrated in middle-to-late layers, consistently writes the confidence-inflation signal at the final token position. We further show that targeted inference-time interventions on these circuits substantially improve calibration. Together, our results suggest that verbalized overconfidence in LLMs is driven by identifiable internal circuits and can be mitigated through targeted intervention.