# PASM: Population Adaptive Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts Model for Cross-location Hurricane Evacuation Decision Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.00074 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.00074/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 19 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning for Fast Adaptation of Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.03400/) (2017)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.05175/) (2017)
- [UMAP: Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03426/) (2018)
- [Matching Networks for One Shot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.04080/) (2016)
- [Gradient Surgery for Multi-Task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.06782/) (2020)
- [Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17548/) (2023)
- [TabPFN: A Transformer That Solves Small Tabular Classification Problems in a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01848/) (2022)
- [Which Tasks Should Be Learned Together in Multi-task Learning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07553/) (2019)
- [Discovering Symbolic Models from Deep Learning with Inductive Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11287/) (2020)
- [Deep symbolic regression: Recovering mathematical expressions from data via risk-seeking policy gradients](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04871/) (2019)
- [LIFT: Language-Interfaced Fine-Tuning for Non-Language Machine Learning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.06565/) (2022)
- [Symbolic Regression with a Learned Concept Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.09359/) (2024)
- [Skill-Based Mixture-of-Experts: Adaptive Routing for Heterogeneous Reasoning via Inferred Skills](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05641/) (2025)
- [DrSR: LLM based Scientific Equation Discovery with Dual Reasoning from Data and Experience](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.04282/) (2025)
- [Attention versus Contrastive Learning of Tabular Data -- A Data-centric Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04266/) (2024)
- [Personalized Decision Modeling: Utility Optimization or Textualized-Symbolic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.02194/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate prediction of evacuation behavior is critical for disaster preparedness, yet models trained in one region often fail elsewhere. Using a multi-state hurricane evacuation survey, we show this failure goes beyond feature distribution shift: households with similar characteristics follow systematically different decision patterns across states. As a result, single global models overfit dominant responses, misrepresent vulnerable subpopulations, and generalize poorly across locations. We propose Population-Adaptive Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts (PASM), which pairs large language model guided symbolic regression with a mixture-of-experts architecture. PASM discovers human-readable closed-form decision rules, specializes them to data-driven subpopulations, and routes each input to the appropriate expert at inference time. On Hurricanes Harvey and Irma data, transferring from Florida and Texas to Georgia with 100 calibration samples, PASM achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.607, compared to XGBoost (0.404), TabPFN (0.333), GPT-5-mini (0.434), and meta-learning baselines MAML and Prototypical Networks (MCC ≤ 0.346). The routing mechanism assigns distinct formula archetypes to subpopulations, so the resulting behavioral profiles are directly interpretable. A fairness audit across four demographic axes finds no statistically significant disparities after Bonferroni correction. PASM closes more than half the cross-location generalization gap while keeping decision rules transparent enough for real-world emergency planning.