# Meteorology-Driven GPT4AP: A Multi-Task Forecasting LLM for Atmospheric Air Pollution in Data-Scarce Settings

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.29974 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.29974/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [ETSformer: Exponential Smoothing Transformers for Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01381/) (2022)
- [FiLM: Frequency improved Legendre Memory Model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.08897/) (2022)
- [AirFormer: Predicting Nationwide Air Quality in China with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15979/) (2022)
- [STDEN: Towards Physics-Guided Neural Networks for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00225/) (2022)
- [AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.13280/) (2023)
- [Novel Physics-Based Machine-Learning Models for Indoor Air Quality Approximations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.01438/) (2023)
- [Machine Learning Global Simulation of Nonlocal Gravity Wave Propagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14775/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate forecasting of air pollution is important for environmental monitoring and policy support, yet data-driven models often suffer from limited generalization in regions with sparse observations. This paper presents Meteorology-Driven GPT for Air Pollution (GPT4AP), a parameter-efficient multi-task forecasting framework based on a pre-trained GPT-2 backbone and Gaussian rank-stabilized low-rank adaptation (rsLoRA). The model freezes the self-attention and feed-forward layers and adapts lightweight positional and output modules, substantially reducing the number of trainable parameters. GPT4AP is evaluated on six real-world air quality monitoring datasets under few-shot, zero-shot, and long-term forecasting settings. In the few-shot regime using 10% of the training data, GPT4AP achieves an average MSE/MAE of 0.686/0.442, outperforming DLinear (0.728/0.530) and ETSformer (0.734/0.505). In zero-shot cross-station transfer, the proposed model attains an average MSE/MAE of 0.529/0.403, demonstrating improved generalization compared with existing baselines. In long-term forecasting with full training data, GPT4AP remains competitive, achieving an average MAE of 0.429, while specialized time-series models show slightly lower errors. These results indicate that GPT4AP provides a data-efficient forecasting approach that performs robustly under limited supervision and domain shift, while maintaining competitive accuracy in data-rich settings.