# Skillful Kilometer-Scale Regional Weather Forecasting via Global and Regional Coupling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28173 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.28173/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [Swin2SR: SwinV2 Transformer for Compressed Image Super-Resolution and Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11345/) (2022)
- [OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00338/) (2025)
- [Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10958/) (2024)
- [Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02891/) (2024)
- [Utilizing Strategic Pre-training to Reduce Overfitting: Baguan -- A Pre-trained Weather Forecasting Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13873/) (2025)
- [HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05658/) (2025)
- [MetMamba: Regional Weather Forecasting with Spatial-Temporal Mamba Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06400/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Data-driven weather models have advanced global medium-range forecasting, yet high-resolution regional prediction remains challenging due to unresolved multiscale interactions between large-scale dynamics and small-scale processes such as terrain-induced circulations and coastal effects. This paper presents a global-regional coupling framework for kilometer-scale regional weather forecasting that synergistically couples a pretrained Transformer-based global model with a high-resolution regional network via a novel bidirectional coupling module, ScaleMixer. ScaleMixer dynamically identifies meteorologically critical regions through adaptive key-position sampling and enables cross-scale feature interaction through dedicated attention mechanisms. The framework produces forecasts at 0.05^circ (~ 5 km ) and 1-hour resolution over China, significantly outperforming operational NWP and AI baselines on both gridded reanalysis data and real-time weather station observations. It exhibits exceptional skill in capturing fine-grained phenomena such as orographic wind patterns and Foehn warming, demonstrating effective global-scale coherence with high-resolution fidelity. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ScaleMixer-6B66.