# The Stochastic Gap: A Markovian Framework for Pre-Deployment Reliability and Oversight-Cost Auditing in Agentic Artificial Intelligence

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.24582 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24582/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Software engineering coding agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 14 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Software engineering coding agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/software-engineering-coding-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

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- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [AutoGen: Enabling Next-Gen LLM Applications via Multi-Agent Conversation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08155/) (2023)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Not what you've signed up for: Compromising Real-World LLM-Integrated Applications with Indirect Prompt Injection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12173/) (2023)
- [τ-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12045/) (2024)
- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [Constrained Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.10528/) (2017)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [CRITIC: Large Language Models Can Self-Correct with Tool-Interactive Critiquing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11738/) (2023)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Doubly Robust Off-policy Value Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.03722/) (2015)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Agentic artificial intelligence (AI) in organizations is a sequential decision problem constrained by reliability and oversight cost. When deterministic workflows are replaced by stochastic policies over actions and tool calls, the key question is not whether a next step appears plausible, but whether the resulting trajectory remains statistically supported, locally unambiguous, and economically governable. We develop a measure-theoretic Markov framework for this setting. The core quantities are state blind-spot mass B_n(tau), state-action blind mass B^SA_{pi,n}(tau), an entropy-based human-in-the-loop escalation gate, and an expected oversight-cost identity over the workflow visitation measure. We instantiate the framework on the Business Process Intelligence Challenge 2019 purchase-to-pay log (251,734 cases, 1,595,923 events, 42 distinct workflow actions) and construct a log-driven simulated agent from a chronological 80/20 split of the same process. The main empirical finding is that a large workflow can appear well supported at the state level while retaining substantial blind mass over next-step decisions: refining the operational state to include case context, economic magnitude, and actor class expands the state space from 42 to 668 and raises state-action blind mass from 0.0165 at tau=50 to 0.1253 at tau=1000. On the held-out split, m(s) = max_a pi-hat(a|s) tracks realized autonomous step accuracy within 3.4 percentage points on average. The same quantities that delimit statistically credible autonomy also determine expected oversight burden. The framework is demonstrated on a large-scale enterprise procurement workflow and is designed for direct application to engineering processes for which operational event logs are available.