# Marchuk: Efficient Global Weather Forecasting from Mid-Range to Sub-Seasonal Scales via Flow Matching

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.24428 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.24428/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 5 of its 8 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Photorealistic Video Generation with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06662/) (2023)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Deep Compression Autoencoder for Efficient High-Resolution Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10733/) (2024)
- [LaDCast: A Latent Diffusion Model for Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09193/) (2025)
- [FuXi-S2S: A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09926/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasting remains a major challenge due to the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which limits the predictive skill of conventional models beyond the mid-range horizon (approximately 15 days). In this work, we present textitMarchuk, a generative latent flow-matching model for global weather forecasting spanning mid-range to subseasonal timescales, with prediction horizons of up to 30 days. Marchuk conditions on current-day weather maps and autoregressively predicts subsequent days' weather maps within the learned latent space. We replace rotary positional encodings (RoPE) with trainable positional embeddings and extend the temporal context window, which together enhance the model's ability to represent and propagate long-range temporal dependencies during latent forecasting. Marchuk offers two key advantages: high computational efficiency and strong predictive performance. Despite its compact architecture of only 276 million parameters, the model achieves performance comparable to LaDCast, a substantially larger model with 1.6 billion parameters, while operating at significantly higher inference speeds. We open-source our inference code and model at: https://v-gen-ai.github.io/Marchuk/