# ProMAS: Proactive Error Forecasting for Multi-Agent Systems Using Markov Transition Dynamics

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20260 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.20260/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Software engineering coding agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 26 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Mar 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Software engineering coding agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/software-engineering-coding-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [Improving Factuality and Reasoning in Language Models through Multiagent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14325/) (2023)
- [ChatDev: Communicative Agents for Software Development](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.07924/) (2023)
- [Why Do Multi-Agent LLM Systems Fail?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.13657/) (2025)
- [On the Planning Abilities of Large Language Models : A Critical Investigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15771/) (2023)
- [Self-collaboration Code Generation via ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07590/) (2023)
- [Data Interpreter: An LLM Agent For Data Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18679/) (2024)
- [Which Agent Causes Task Failures and When? On Automated Failure Attribution of LLM Multi-Agent Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00212/) (2025)
- [Large Language Model-Based Agents for Software Engineering: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02977/) (2024)
- [MapCoder: Multi-Agent Code Generation for Competitive Problem Solving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.11403/) (2024)
- [Where LLM Agents Fail and How They can Learn From Failures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25370/) (2025)
- [Debug like a Human: A Large Language Model Debugger via Verifying Runtime Execution Step-by-step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16906/) (2024)
- [AgenTracer: Who Is Inducing Failure in the LLM Agentic Systems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.03312/) (2025)
- [A Survey of Frontiers in LLM Reasoning: Inference Scaling, Learning to Reason, and Agentic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09037/) (2025)
- [Scalable Multi-Robot Collaboration with Large Language Models: Centralized or Decentralized Systems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15943/) (2023)
- [The Dawn of Natural Language to SQL: Are We Fully Ready?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01265/) (2024)
- [ToolSafe: Enhancing Tool Invocation Safety of LLM-based agents via Proactive Step-level Guardrail and Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.10156/) (2026)
- [Lyfe Agents: Generative agents for low-cost real-time social interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02172/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Large Language Model Agents for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19213/) (2025)
- [WaitGPT: Monitoring and Steering Conversational LLM Agent in Data Analysis with On-the-Fly Code Visualization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.01703/) (2024)
- [Who is Introducing the Failure? Automatically Attributing Failures of Multi-Agent Systems via Spectrum Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13782/) (2025)
- [ProbGuard: Proactive Runtime Monitoring for LLM Agent Safety via Probabilistic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.00500/) (2025)
- [Metacognitive Self-Correction for Multi-Agent System via Prototype-Guided Next-Execution Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14319/) (2025)
- [Video-QTR: Query-Driven Temporal Reasoning Framework for Lightweight Video Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.09354/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Who&When Pro: Can LLMs Really Attribute Failures in AI Agents?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.09996/) (2026)
- [Beyond Individual Intelligence: Surveying Collaboration, Failure Attribution, and Self-Evolution in LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14892/) (2026)
- [WorkflowOps: Learning Agent Collaboration Priors for Multi-Agent Workflow Orchestration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.07860/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The integration of Large Language Models into Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) has enabled the so-lution of complex, long-horizon tasks through collaborative reasoning. However, this collec-tive intelligence is inherently fragile, as a single logical fallacy can rapidly propagate and lead to system-wide failure. Most current research re-lies on post-hoc failure analysis, thereby hinder-ing real-time intervention. To address this, we propose PROMAS, a proactive framework utiliz-ing Markov transitions for predictive error anal-ysis. PROMAS extracts Causal Delta Features to capture semantic displacement, mapping them to a quantized Vector Markov Space to model reasoning as probabilistic transitions. By inte-grating a Proactive Prediction Head with Jump Detection, the method localizes errors via risk acceleration rather than static thresholds. On the Who&When benchmark, PROMAS achieves 22.97% step-level accuracy while processing only 27% of reasoning logs. This performance rivals reactive monitors like MASC while reducing data overhead by 73%. Although this strategy entails an accuracy trade-off compared to post-hoc meth-ods, it significantly improves intervention latency, balancing diagnostic precision with the real-time demands of autonomous reasoning.