# Teleological Inference in Structural Causal Models via Intentional Interventions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.18968 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.18968/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Foundations of Structural Causal Models with Cycles and Latent Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.06221/) (2016)
- [Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda: Counterfactually-Guided Policy Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.06272/) (2018)
- [Causal Discovery from Changes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.2312/) (2013)
- [A Survey on Causal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05209/) (2023)
- [Towards Formal Definitions of Blameworthiness, Intention, and Moral Responsibility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05903/) (2018)
- [The Reasons that Agents Act: Intention and Instrumental Goals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.07221/) (2024)
- [Identifiability of total effects from abstractions of time series causal graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14691/) (2023)
- [Identifiability and Transportability in Dynamic Causal Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.05556/) (2016)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Structural causal models (SCMs) were conceived to formulate and answer causal questions. This paper shows that SCMs can also be used to formulate and answer teleological questions, concerning the intentions of a state-aware, goal-directed agent intervening in a causal system. We review limitations of previous approaches to modeling such agents, and then introduce intentional interventions, a new time-agnostic operator that induces a twin SCM we call a structural final model (SFM). SFMs treat observed values as the outcome of intentional interventions and relate them to the counterfactual conditions of those interventions (what would have happened had the agent not intervened). We show how SFMs can be used to empirically detect agents and to discover their intentions.