# Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating Forecasting Models by Multi-Echelon Inventory Cost

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.16815 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16815/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [Conditional Time Series Forecasting with Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04691/) (2017)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study develops a digitalized forecasting-inventory optimization pipeline integrating traditional forecasting models, machine learning regressors, and deep sequence models within a unified inventory simulation framework. Using the M5 Walmart dataset, we evaluate seven forecasting approaches and assess their operational impact under single- and two-echelon newsvendor systems. Results indicate that Temporal CNN and LSTM models significantly reduce inventory costs and improve fill rates compared to statistical baselines. Sensitivity and multi-echelon analyses demonstrate robustness and scalability, offering a data-driven decision-support tool for modern supply chains.