# Self-Supervised Uncertainty Estimation For Super-Resolution of Satellite Images

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.14074 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14074/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Diffusion Posterior Sampling for General Noisy Inverse Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14687/) (2022)
- [Denoising Diffusion Restoration Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11793/) (2022)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Noise2Void - Learning Denoising from Single Noisy Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.10980/) (2018)
- [Noise2Self: Blind Denoising by Self-Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.11365/) (2019)
- [High-Quality Self-Supervised Deep Image Denoising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.10277/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks with Bernoulli Approximate Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02158/) (2015)
- [Noisier2Noise: Learning to Denoise from Unpaired Noisy Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.11908/) (2019)
- [Noise2Score: Tweedie's Approach to Self-Supervised Image Denoising without Clean Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07009/) (2021)
- [Ambient Diffusion: Learning Clean Distributions from Corrupted Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19256/) (2023)
- [Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05265/) (2022)
- [DEUP: Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08501/) (2021)
- [A Deeper Look into Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.09308/) (2022)
- [Equivariant Imaging: Learning Beyond the Range Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14756/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Toolbox: an Open-Source Library for Assessing, Visualizing, and Improving Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.10254/) (2021)
- [Probabilistic Noise2Void: Unsupervised Content-Aware Denoising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00651/) (2019)
- [Unsupervised Learning with Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.10531/) (2018)
- [Training Deep Learning Based Denoisers without Ground Truth Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01314/) (2018)
- [Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20892/) (2024)
- [Structured Uncertainty Prediction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07079/) (2018)
- [Model-blind Video Denoising Via Frame-to-frame Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12766/) (2018)
- [A theoretical framework for self-supervised MR image reconstruction using sub-sampling via variable density Noisier2Noise](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10278/) (2022)
- [UnCRtainTS: Uncertainty Quantification for Cloud Removal in Optical Satellite Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05464/) (2023)
- [Sources of Uncertainty in Supervised Machine Learning -- A Statisticians' View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16703/) (2023)
- [Self-Supervised training for blind multi-frame video denoising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.06957/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Super-resolution (SR) of satellite imagery is challenging due to the lack of paired low-/high-resolution data. Recent self-supervised SR methods overcome this limitation by exploiting the temporal redundancy in burst observations, but they lack a mechanism to quantify uncertainty in the reconstruction. In this work, we introduce a novel self-supervised loss that allows to estimate uncertainty in image super-resolution without ever accessing the ground-truth high-resolution data. We adopt a decision-theoretic perspective and show that minimizing the corresponding Bayesian risk yields the posterior mean and variance as optimal estimators. We validate our approach on a synthetic SkySat L1B dataset and demonstrate that it produces calibrated uncertainty estimates comparable to supervised methods. Our work bridges self-supervised restoration with uncertainty quantification, making a practical framework for uncertainty-aware image reconstruction.