# From AI Weather Prediction to Infrastructure Resilience: A Real-Time Correction-Downscaling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Impact Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.12828 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12828/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Mar 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Uformer: A General U-Shaped Transformer for Image Restoration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03106/) (2021)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [Stochastic Super-Resolution for Downscaling Time-Evolving Atmospheric Fields with a Generative Adversarial Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10374/) (2020)
- [DiffDA: a Diffusion Model for Weather-scale Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05932/) (2024)
- [FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00059/) (2024)
- [WeatherGNN: Exploiting Meteo- and Spatial-Dependencies for Local Numerical Weather Prediction Bias-Correction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05517/) (2023)
- [ADAF: An Artificial Intelligence Data Assimilation Framework for Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16807/) (2024)
- [Kolmogorov Arnold Neural Interpolator for Downscaling and Correcting Meteorological Fields from In-Situ Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14404/) (2025)
- [Multi-agent Modeling of Hazard-Household-Infrastructure Nexus for Equitable Resilience Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03160/) (2021)
- [From Forecast to Action: A Deep Learning Model for Predicting Power Outages During Tropical Cyclones](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.06644/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper addresses a missing capability in infrastructure resilience: turning fast, global AI weather forecasts into asset-scale, actionable risk intelligence. We introduce the AI-based Correction-Downscaling Framework (ACDF), which combines real-time bias correction, terrain-informed downscaling, and fragility-based power transmission system risk assessment for tropical cyclone impacts. ACDF separates storm-scale bias correction from terrain-aware refinement, mitigating error propagation while restoring the sub-kilometer wind variability that governs structural loading. Tested on 11 typhoons affecting Zhejiang, China under leave-one-storm-out evaluation, ACDF produces 500 m wind fields over a province-scale domain, reduces station-scale wind-speed MAE by 38.8% relative to Pangu-Weather, and runs in approximately 25 s per 12-h cycle on a single GPU. In the Typhoon Hagupit case, ACDF reproduced observed high-wind tails, identified a coastal high-risk corridor, and flagged the transmission line that subsequently failed, demonstrating actionable guidance at tower and line scales. ACDF provides an end-to-end pathway from global AI weather forecasts to operational, impact-based early warning for critical infrastructure.